On February 5, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 126,870 yuan/ton and the closing price was 124,860 yuan/ton, down 1,570 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading was stronger than the previous trading day, with a volume increase of 70,756 lots and an increase of 5,982 lots. Under this combination, both the long and short sides increased their positions, but the short side actively increased their positions. This also shows that the bears' attitude is more resolute than that of the bulls, and they have a greater grasp of the subsequent decline of the market; At the same time, many parties are reluctant to admit defeat and passively increase their positions at a low level. Therefore, after the emergence of this combination, if the disk reacts excessively and the short-term price falls too much, it will trigger many parties to increase their chips and short-term speculators to intervene, and then superimpose the shorts' take profit and exit, in this case, the probability of a V-shaped reversal in the market is greater. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced on the evening of February 1 that the interest rate range for February remained unchanged, and Powell said that the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year still exists, but there is no possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term. From a fundamental point of view, today's spot market is affected by the downstream stocking rhythm coming to an end, the transaction sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the supply of pure nickel has increased due to the arrival of some pure nickel. To sum up, it is expected that the follow-up nickel price may fluctuate weakly.
On February 5, Jinchuan premium was reported at 3900-4200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 4050 yuan/ton, and the average price was increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of Russian nickel premium was -100 to 0 yuan/ton, with an average price of -50 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. Nickel prices fell sharply this morning, and the spot premium showed a slight recovery as a whole, mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, some manufacturers and freight have been on holiday, and the spot market supply is tight. Today's nickel bean price is 121,100-121,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the spot price of the previous trading day, and the price difference between nickel beans and nickel sulfate today is about -518.2 yuan/ton. (The price of nickel sulfate is 518.2 yuan/ton higher than the price of nickel beans).
On February 5, the average price of SMM8-12% high-nickel pig iron was 932.5 yuan/nickel point (ex-factory tax included), which was the same as the price of the previous working day. From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, some iron mills entered the shutdown stage in January, and it is expected that China's high-nickel pig iron production will be further reduced in February. In addition, according to SMM research, the inventory of ferronickel at the end of January fell by 1.78% month-on-month. On the demand side, most of the steel mills have completed the pre-holiday reserve, and some steel mills have no pre-holiday reserve demand and are expected to replenish the warehouse after the year. Also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of steel mills will decline during February. To sum up, the current supply and demand of ferronickel is still weak, and it is expected that the output increment of subsequent steel mills will be limited, and the loose supply of ferronickel will be difficult to change, and it is expected that the rebound space of ferronickel prices is limited.
On February 5, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate index price was 26,906 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 26,800-27,400 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Today's nickel sulfate price rose slightly, the main reason is still that the current market spot trading volume is small, the salt plant price psychology is strong. Approaching the Spring Festival, the current market inquiry transaction activity is low.
Stainless steel: On February 5, according to SMM research, today's stainless steel futures fluctuated in a narrow range, and the spot price was flat compared with last Friday. Stainless steel spot traders have entered the holiday, only a small number of traders in the market are still running, and there is basically no transaction in the spot. On the raw material side, the prices of high-nickel pig iron, high-carbon ferrochrome and scrap stainless steel have been stable recently, the cost line of stainless steel has remained stable, and the spot price of stainless steel is expected to remain stable in the short term. In the morning of the same day, 304 cold-rolled Wuxi area reported 13900-14200 yuan/ton, and 304 hot-rolled Wuxi area reported 13450-13550 yuan/ton. 316L cold-rolled Wuxi area reported 24000-24800 yuan/ton. 201J1 cold-rolled Wuxi area reported 9000-9100 yuan/ton. 430 cold-rolled Wuxi area reported 8100-8200 yuan/ton. SHFE10: 30 points SS2403 contract price 13645 yuan/ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot premium 425-725 yuan/ton. (Spot trimming = burr + 170 yuan/ton).
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