MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (December 8)

India's MRAI, representing small and mid-sized recyclers, has urged the federal trade ministry to intervene over the EU plan to bar metal waste exports to India from May 2027. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said it remains engaged with the EU. The European Commission proposed the ban on 18 September, citing toxic heavy metals in scrap. India, a major scrap buyer, sources about a quarter of its metal scrap imports from the EU. In 2025/26 the EU supplied roughly 20% of India's aluminium scrap imports, 22% of copper and copper alloy scrap, 20% of lead scrap and 40% of zinc scrap, per MRAI. MRAI warned of higher raw-material costs and greater reliance on virgin metal, calling the move resource protectionism and seeking zero-duty scrap imports under the India-EU trade deal due this year.

US metals policy is a case of 'manufactured scarcity', a PPI analysis finds. Since 2018, Section 232 tariffs have risen to 50% on steel and aluminium, now covering Canadian and Mexican metal and semi-finished copper. Prices show the wedge: US steel averaged 758 USD/tonne in January 2025 against 456 USD/tonne globally, hitting 1,208 USD/tonne by June 2026 versus 490 USD/tonne worldwide, while aluminium runs about 4,500 USD/tonne. Output barely moved at 82 million tonnes, above the 81.3 million tonne 2019-2025 average but below the 84 million tonne 2010-2017 norm. Apparent consumption fell to 95 million tonnes, 9 million tonnes under the 2000-2017 average of 104 million tonnes. Manufacturing's GDP share fell from 3.1% in 2017 to 2.6% by early 2026, while new car prices rose about 2,000 USD. PPI contrasts this with the Biden-era CHIPS programme's 54 billion USD approach.

India now gives shipowners a "credit note" when they scrap an old ship at an approved Indian yard. The credit is worth 40% of the ship's scrap value, but it can only be used to help pay for a new ship built in India. The benefit goes to the shipowner, not directly to the recycler. It may bring more ships to India, but it does not by itself raise the price recyclers pay. What recyclers can pay depends on what they earn from selling the recovered steel, so domestic steel prices matter most.