Overnight, LME copper opened and touched a high of $9,916.5/mt before fluctuating downward to close at the day's low of $9,875/mt, down 0.31%, with trading volume at 10,000 lots and open interest at 269,000 lots.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers in Aluminum Scrap Market Intensifies, Spot-Futures Price Spread of Cast Aluminum Widens Again] Aluminum prices fluctuated downward yesterday, with SMM ADC12 holding steady at 20,750 yuan/mt. The regional tax rebate policy after September remains unclear, keeping the secondary aluminum market in a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Coupled with tight raw material supply, manufacturers maintained firm offers amid cost support. Demand side, the approaching traditional peak season drove a slight recovery in downstream procurement, but high prices suppressed trading volume, leaving actual demand still mediocre.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Significant Macro Support with Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand, Aluminum Prices More Likely to Rise Than Fall in September] Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and potential US housing stimulus policies, coupled with China's intensified policies to boost domestic demand, have collectively created a bullish atmosphere, which is expected to enhance aluminum consumption prospects. However, the transmission of domestic policy support to actual consumption still requires time. Supply side, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, operating capacity is steadily increasing slightly, and production is growing marginally. The proportion of liquid aluminum is anticipated to rebound in September. Cost side, the weekly total cost of the aluminum industry saw minimal changes, with high industry profits remaining intact. Demand side remains the core focus for the market going forward. As the September-October peak season approaches, downstream operating rates showed stronger signs of recovery last week, with increases observed in sectors such as aluminum extrusion and aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil. Entering early September, consumption has only shown marginal improvement, and effective inventory destocking still requires time to materialize. However, current total inventory levels are not high, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in provinces like Anhui and Jiangxi have received notices of termination for tax rebate policies, posing a risk of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which provides some support for primary aluminum consumption. Overall, aluminum prices in the traditional peak season of September are more likely to rise than fall, but upside resistance remains. For aluminum prices to effectively break through the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt, the market needs to await the realization of consumption expectations during the September-October peak season, validated by subsequent domestic aluminum ingot destocking inflection points and sustained strength in downstream operating rates.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Lackluster Market Activity, Premiums Struggle to Rise] SMM, September 1: In the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum front-month contract declined to around 20,600 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound. Although the aluminum price center dropped, the market showed little improvement, with transactions mainly focused on selling and settled at slight discounts. After 9:30, as the aluminum price center continued to fall, buying sentiment slightly improved, and premiums and discounts gradually stabilized, shifting to transactions at the SMM average price. Today, the east China market selling sentiment index stood at 3.06, up 0.02, while the purchasing sentiment index reached 2.84, up 0.11. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,620 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a 30 yuan/mt discount to the 2509 contract, narrowing by 10 yuan/mt from the previous session.

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,899/mt on Friday night, initially touched a low of $9,881/mt, then entered sideways movement with prices gradually moving upward, nearing a high of $9,924.5/mt before closing at $9,906/mt, up 0.68%.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: August Secondary Aluminum PMI Remains Below 50 Mark] Last Friday, aluminum prices remained stable, while most secondary aluminum market quotations held steady. Due to tight circulation, aluminum scrap prices remained firm, continuing to support ADC12 prices on the cost side. Additionally, frequent reports of tax rebate cancellations and back taxes in multiple regions have intensified companies' cost transfer intentions, leading to a short-term price trend more likely to rise than fall. Demand side, as the traditional September peak season approaches, downstream procurement has only mildly recovered. High prices have suppressed market inquiries, resulting in active inquiries but limited actual transactions. The strengthening spot-futures price spread has improved the sales performance of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Peak Season Nears with Marginal Consumption Improvement, Aluminum Prices Find Support but Face Resistance at Highs] Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intensified and China's policy stimulus boosted domestic demand, creating an overall favorable sentiment that may enhance aluminum consumption prospects. However, the transmission of domestic policy support to actual consumption still requires time. Supply side, with the commissioning of limited replacement capacity, operating capacity saw a modest increase, while production edged up slightly. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rebound in September. Cost side, the weekly total cost for the aluminum industry showed minimal change, with high industry profits remaining intact. Demand side remains the core focus for the market ahead. As the September-October peak season approaches, downstream operating rates displayed stronger recovery signs last week, with aluminum extrusion and plate/sheet, strip and foil sectors showing varying degrees of growth. Entering early September, current consumption only exhibits marginal improvement, and effective inventory destocking still needs time to materialize. However, total inventory remains relatively low, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi provinces have received notices on the termination of tax rebate policies, posing risks of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which provides some support for primary aluminum consumption. During the traditional September peak season, aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall overall, but resistance at highs persists. For aluminum prices to effectively break through the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt, the market needs to witness the realization of consumption expectations during the September-October peak season, validated by subsequent domestic aluminum ingot destocking inflection points and sustained strength in downstream operating rates.

Preliminary Data on China's Aluminum Billet Production in August Released! Have All Provinces Fully Resumed Production? [SMM Analysis] The storm gradually subsided! The final scale of primary aluminum billets production cuts in July was lower than expected, with a smooth resumption pace in August. Three main reasons contributed to this: (1) Aluminum prices hovered at highs during the off-season, and the adaptability of the industry chain to high aluminum prices strengthened; (2) Aluminum smelters adopted a clear stance, leaving limited room for aluminum billet producers to halt or cut production; (3) After the production cut turmoil, the center of processing fees slightly rose, easing financial pressure on aluminum billet enterprises....