[SMM Analysis: Lithium Battery Entire Industry Chain Enters Peak Season in September, End-Use Demand Expected to Continue Increasing] SMM October 10: In September, China's monthly lithium carbonate production continued to hit new highs, up 2% MoM and significantly up 52% YoY; lithium hydroxide production surged 26% MoM; cobalt sulphate production rose 8.24% MoM and increased 17.6% YoY; Co3O4 production showed significant growth, up 9% MoM and 40% YoY; ternary cathode precursor production continued its strong growth trend, up 12.28% MoM and 22.05% YoY; ternary cathode material production maintained strong growth, up 13.55% MoM and 23.44% YoY; iron phosphate production surged 17% MoM and increased 58% YoY; LFP material production increased approximately 12.8% MoM and 42% YoY, with an industry operating rate of about 68%; LCO market showed steady growth, with monthly production achieving a slight increase, up 3% MoM and significantly climbing 55% YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Focusing on Graphite Anode Export Controls: Decoding Industry Reshaping and Global Changes Driven by New Policies] SMM October 10 News: Announcement No. 58 of 2025 from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the decision to implement export controls on items related to lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials. These control measures will officially take effect from November 8, 2025.

Currently, the price increase in the sulfate segment has not been fully passed on to downstream battery cell manufacturers, and battery cell manufacturers have very limited acceptance of the rise in ternary cathode material prices. Under cost pressure, cathode plants also have relatively limited acceptance of the increase in the discount coefficient for upstream ternary cathode precursors.

The market generally expects prices to continue their upward trend, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the initial post-holiday period, leading to relatively cautious trading performance.

In September, the domestic iron phosphate market exhibited an active trend of "increases in both volume and price," with particularly outstanding production data. According to statistics, iron phosphate production rose significantly by 17% MoM and was up 58% YoY, successfully surpassing the 300,000 mt monthly production threshold, achieving a notable supply-side increase compared to August.

In September 2025, global lithium sulfide production increased domestically but decreased overseas, with China up 2.52% MoM while overseas production fell sharply by 12.99%. A strong rebound is expected in October, driven primarily by domestic capacity ramp-up. The industry faces both high growth and batch stability challenges.

Spot cobalt sulphate prices rose significantly this week. Supply side, overseas cobalt prices continued to strengthen during the National Day holiday, and domestic smelters, bullish on the outlook, mostly held back offers and further raised their intended selling prices. Among them, enterprises producing cobalt sulphate from intermediate products raised their target prices to around 80,000 yuan/mt, while MHP and recycling enterprises also generally increased their target prices to approximately 75,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, some downstream ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 enterprises, concerned about potential supply gaps, showed increased purchase willingness recently. However, as their own downstream orders are not fully locked in and the DRC's quota allocation policy remains uncertain, actual procurement remained cautious, and market transactions were still sluggish. Overall, driven by rising raw material costs and periodic downstream stockpiling demand, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.