[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Headwinds and Off-Season Inventory Buildup Pressure Tin Prices Downward] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) rebounded slightly in the morning session today, closing at around 264,800 yuan/mt at midday, dropping slightly by 0.32%, breaking below the 20-day moving average support, and returning to the midpoint of the 265,000-270,000 yuan/mt oscillation range. LME Tin Contract: Overnight, LME tin closed at $33,350/mt, up 0.27%; it remained in the doldrums during the Asian session today, trading within the $33,000-33,500/mt range.

SHFE tin prices remained rangebound at low levels, with trading activity heating up in the spot market [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) From January to June 2025, the arithmetic average price reduction of new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 23,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 12%. In June, the arithmetic average price reduction of new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 15,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 10.4%, a relatively low level. (Bullish ★) (2) Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange held the 5th session of the 2nd season of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board New Quality Productive Forces Industry Salon" titled "Optical Chips: China's New 'Spark' in Computing Power". It invited four leading optical chip companies, namely Taclink, Everbright Optoelectronics, Shijia Photonics, and Yuanjie Technology, along with multiple securities firms, fund management companies, and other institutions to gather and engage in in-depth discussions, aiming to propel China's optical chip industry to a higher level. (3) US President Trump stated that the effective date for US tariffs is August 1st, but he is open to postponing them if countries make suggestions. When asked if the deadline is definite, Trump said, "I'd say yes, but I'm not 100% sure. If they call and say they want to handle it differently, we'll accept that." Starting Monday, Trump informed trading partners, including Japan and South Korea, that the US would significantly raise tariffs starting from August 1st, marking a new phase in the trade war he initiated earlier this year.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin: SHFE tin prices fluctuated downward during the day, stimulating downstream enterprises to begin restocking and purchasing] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closing price: 263,520 yuan/mt, down 5,460 yuan (a 2.03% decline) in a single day. Intraday fluctuations: opened at 267,250 yuan, peaked at 268,100 yuan, and bottomed out at 262,520 yuan, showing a fluctuating downward trend. Open interest and trading volume: open interest decreased by 2,457 lots to 28,262 lots, with a trading volume of 84,417 lots, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among funds.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Under Pressure amid Volatility, LME Tin Awaits Macro Breakthrough] Prominent Mine-End Contradictions: The progress of tin ore production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow. Coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, the import channels for tin ore have been blocked. It is estimated that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500-1,000 mt in June. Persistent Production Cuts at the Smelting End: Raw material inventories at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally insufficient for 30 days. Some enterprises have undergone maintenance or implemented gradient production cuts, leading to a tightening of the refined tin supply margin.

Orders for PV solder and electronics companies shrink; SHFE tin prices remain fluctuating rangebound [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) According to the Wall Street Journal, sources said that TSMC will prioritize investment in the US to address the threat of chip tariffs, and will delay the start of construction of its second chip factory in Japan. (Bearish ★) (2) Some EU automakers and governments are pushing for an agreement with the US to achieve tariff reductions, while the EU increases its investments in the US. The EU must reach a trade arrangement with Trump by July 9th, otherwise tariffs on nearly all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50%. (3) India has proposed imposing retaliatory tariffs on US tariffs imposed on the automotive industry under the guise of safeguard measures, in accordance with World Trade Organization (WTO) norms. A WTO notification circulated at India's request stated: "The proposed suspension of concessions or other obligations will increase tariffs on specific products originating in the US." India has notified the WTO Council for Trade in Goods of its proposal to suspend concessions and other obligations under certain WTO provisions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Congress Approves Comprehensive Tax and Budget Legislation, Tin Prices Expected to Hover at Highs] On the international macro front, the US Congress has approved comprehensive tax and budget legislation, with the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit set to expire on September 30, which will have a certain impact on the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that trade agreements would be signed intensively before July 9, potentially bringing uncertainty to the global trade environment. Domestically, the overall supply of tin ore in the market is tightening, with continuous supply constraints in major producing areas such as Yunnan. Some smelters plan to halt production for maintenance or slightly cut production. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ends, orders decline. The electronics industry has entered the off-season, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with only just-in-time procurement being maintained. Demand in other sectors, such as tinplate and chemicals, remains stable. The spot market has seen sluggish transactions, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards current prices. Social inventory has experienced a slight buildup, and the inventory buildup pressure is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at highs next week. Investors should pay close attention to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, seasonal recovery of end-use demand, and changes in macro policies, and operate cautiously. ...

[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Rebound Slightly; Smelters in Both Regions Expected to Operate at Low Rates in July] According to SMM's processing data from in-depth market surveys, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have continued to rebound slightly in recent periods. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces has risen to 53.97%. Low Operating Rates: Due to tight tin ore supply, smelters in Yunnan have maintained low operating rates. Despite a slight rebound of 4.13% in operating rates this week, they remain significantly lower than the levels in Q4 2024. Critically Low Raw Material Inventories: Myanmar's tin ore imports have been below the 10,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, the slow pace of production resumptions in the Wa region, coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, has blocked tin ore import channels. Raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters are generally insufficient for 30 days, forcing some enterprises to conduct maintenance or implement gradient production cuts. Treatment charges (TCs) for 40% grade tin concentrates are at historical lows, squeezing smelting profits and further dampening production enthusiasm. Jiangxi smelters rely on a scrap tin recycling system, but poor end-use consumption has led to a decline in recycling volumes. Falling TCs have driven up production costs. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap, resulting in slow capacity recovery. Smelters in both regions are expected to operate at low rates in July.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate Rangebound at High Levels, Spot Market Remains Sluggish] Morning Session Trends: Today, SHFE tin continued to fluctuate rangebound at high levels. It opened at 269,010 yuan/mt (down slightly by 0.11% from the previous night session), reaching a high of 271,300 yuan/mt and a low of 267,000 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 267,770 yuan/mt in the midday session, down by 0.46%, with open interest remaining stable at 31,100 lots.

The spot market maintains a state of "high premium and low trading volume," with SHFE tin prices trading sideways at a high level. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The US Congress approved comprehensive tax and budget legislation on Thursday, which means that the $7,500 tax credit for purchasing or leasing a new EV will expire on September 30, along with the $4,000 tax credit for used EVs. (Bearish ★) (2) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held the 15th Manufacturing Enterprise Symposium: Comprehensively addressing the low-price and disorderly competition in the PV industry in accordance with laws and regulations. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Von der Leyen: The EU aims to reach a "deal in principle" with the Trump administration by July 9. ② US Treasury Secretary: Warns that tariffs could be raised back to April 2 levels, with approximately 100 countries expected to receive at least a 10% reciprocal tariff. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. ③ Japanese Prime Minister: Trump may have been misled on some tariff issues. ④ Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US. ④ Trump could send letters as early as Friday to inform trading partners of unilateral tariff rates. ⑤ Canadian Finance Minister: Can negotiate the best trade agreement with the US, and there will be no digital tax.