SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market July 25

SHANGHAI, Jul 25 (SMM) –  The most-traded SHFE 2309 aluminum contract opened at 18,230 yuan/mt overnight, with its low and high at 18,225 yuan/mt and 18,310 yuan/mt respectively before closing at 18,290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.16%. LME aluminum opened at $2,207.5/mt on Monday, with its low and high at $2,185/mt and $2,213.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,207.5/mt, down $3/mt or 0.14%.

On the macro level, the Fed is about to raise interest rates, but there is an expectation to stop raising interest rates in the future. Domestic stimulus policies are frequent, and the macro front is relatively stable. In terms of fundamentals, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan is speeding up, and it is expected that some large smelters in the region will be able to produce at full capacity by the end of August. At present, the production in Yunnan is gradually climbing, and the supply pressure in the South China market will gradually be reflected. In terms of consumption, domestic downstream operating rates are in the off-season. So far, the domestic aluminium ingot inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The low inventory in the off-season gives support to aluminium prices. SHFE aluminium may move rangebound in the short term.

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