Daily Updates on SHFE Base Metals and Stainless Steel Warrants on July 3

[SMM Analysis] Futures Weakness and Sluggish Off-Season Demand; Stainless Steel Inventory Posts Slight Buildup and Remains Stable on Limited Arrivals SMM, August 13 – This week, stainless steel social inventory shifted from prior destocking to a slight buildup, with the overall inventory level basically stable and off-season inventory pressure rising at the margin. Total inventories in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up from 915,200 mt on August 6, 2026, to 915,900 mt in the latest period, up 0.08% WoW. The buildup was modest, and overall inventory maintained a stable trend. This week, the stainless steel market continued to follow the traditional off-season pattern. Early recovery signals ahead of the September-October peak season had yet to emerge, and rigid demand from end-users remained weak. During the week, SS futures pulled back repeatedly. Wait-and-see sentiment strengthened among traders and downstream users, and most downstream end-users maintained a need-based, hand-to-mouth purchasing pattern. Spot transactions in the market were generally weak, and the destocking efficiency of cargoes was low, creating the core fundamental pressure behind the inventory buildup. On the supply and distribution side, there were temporary offsetting factors. At the beginning of this week, weather disruptions from Typhoon Dolphin constrained logistics shipments and the pace of spot arrivals in east China. The pace of market supply replenishment slowed, effectively offsetting the incremental buildup caused by weak demand, leaving social inventory only slightly higher this week and broadly stable overall. Overall, weak end-use demand in the off-season and weaker futures that dragged on market transactions were the core causes of this week's slight inventory buildup. Meanwhile, typhoon-related disruptions reduced arrivals and effectively curbed any sharp inventory accumulation, ultimately resulting in a slight buildup with overall stability. At this stage, the off-season fundamentals of stainless steel still dominate the market, and end-use demand shows no signs of recovery yet...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Pull Back; Stainless Steel Quotes Retreat; Market Trading Sluggish SMM, August 13 – SS futures moved lower and pulled back overall, dragged by broad weakness in nonferrous metals, with SS moving down in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,385 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the pullback in SS futures and lower guidance prices at a major stainless steel mill, 304 stainless steel quotes pulled back. However, the price pullback turned market sentiment pessimistic; downstream purchasing was cautious, and intraday inquiries and deals were weak. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 stood at 14,395 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 475-675 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, average prices fell by 125 yuan/mt in Wuxi and by 175 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, stainless steel futures were disrupted by both industry news and capital flows, showing wild swings overall, with a fierce tug-of-war between longs and shorts. During the week, news about additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia’s RKAB repeatedly disrupted market expectations. Combined with shifts in capital flows in futures, SS futures rose initially before pulling back, briefly testing the 15,100 yuan/mt level mid-week, but subsequently, as expectations of growth in nickel ore quotas heated up...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Comment] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note; Spot Stainless Steel Holds Steady with Off-Season Need-Based Deals SMM reported on August 12: SS futures showed a consolidation pattern on a strong note overall, though gains were rather limited. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,535 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures edged up, spot quotes did not show notable fluctuations, with a focus on stable quotes and active selling. Market inquiry activity picked up somewhat, but against the backdrop of the demand off-season, actual transactions remained need-based. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 14,555 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi region were in the range of 315-765 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was stable; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were disrupted by both industry news and capital flows, experiencing wild swings with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. News about additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia’s RKAB repeatedly disturbed market expectations during the week, and with shifting capital flows in futures, SS futures rose first and then fell, briefly testing the 15,100 yuan/mt mark mid-week. However, as expectations of growth in nickel ore quotas heated up, bulls’ confidence evaporated, and futures pulled back to a weaker level…