SS futures recovery unlikely to change steel mill production cut expectations, narrowing economic advantages keep stainless steel scrap prices stable [SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review]

Published: Sep 24, 2026 16:52 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] SS Futures Recovery Fails to Offset Steel Mill Production Cut Expectations; Narrowing Cost Advantage Keeps Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Stable This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China remained flat, with a quotation range of 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt. In Foshan, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices also held steady, ranging from 9,800 to 10,100 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the production cost of stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap as feedstock stood at approximately 13,763.18 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reached 14,186.61 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap still holds a certain cost substitution advantage over high-grade NPI, but the price spread between the two has narrowed. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained in the doldrums overall. During the week, SS futures rebounded from lows, and with the holiday approaching, end-user buyers' bargaining power weakened somewhat. Spot prices of finished products edged up, and the decline in stainless steel scrap prices eased, keeping them stable. However, the positive impact from the futures recovery lacked sustainability, as end-user demand did not actually recover. Overall market transaction volumes saw limited improvement, and downstream players held strong pessimistic wait-and-see sentiment toward the near-term outlook, making it difficult to provide any substantial boost to scrap prices. Meanwhile, high-grade NPI prices continued to pull back, further squeezing the cost substitution advantage of stainless steel scrap and weakening the bottom support for scrap. The market as a whole showed a stable but slightly weak trend. Overall, the modest futures recovery and pre-holiday restocking demand were insufficient to offset multiple bearish factors, including weak end-user demand and soft supply expectations. Hopes for a peak-season recovery have now completely faded, and end-user restocking demand remains...

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China remained flat, with a quotation range of 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt; prices in Foshan also held steady, ranging from 9,800 to 10,100 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the production cost of stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap is approximately 13,763.18 yuan/mt, while using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,186.61 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap still holds some economic substitution advantage over high-grade NPI, but the price spread between the two has narrowed.

This week, stainless steel scrap prices overall maintained a weak and stable pattern. During the week, SS futures rebounded from low levels, and with the holiday approaching, end-user buyers' bargaining power weakened somewhat. Finished product spot prices firmed slightly, and the decline in stainless steel scrap prices eased and stabilized. However, the positive impact from the futures recovery lacked sustainability, as end-user demand did not actually recover. Overall market transaction volumes improved only marginally, and downstream players held strong pessimistic wait-and-see sentiment toward the outlook, making it difficult to provide any substantive boost to scrap prices. Meanwhile, high-grade NPI prices continued to pull back, further compressing the cost substitution advantage of stainless steel scrap and weakening bottom support for scrap prices. The market overall exhibited a stable but slightly weak character.

Overall, the modest futures recovery and pre-holiday restocking demand were insufficient to offset multiple bearish factors, including sluggish end-user demand and weak supply expectations. Hopes for a peak-season recovery have now completely faded, end-user demand remains persistently weak, and market trading sentiment is subdued. Additionally, expectations for stainless steel mill production cuts in October continue to build, and raw material demand from the production side is likely to contract further. Steel mills are becoming more cautious in their purchase willingness for stainless steel scrap, and buying activity in the market remains sluggish. Under the combined weight of multiple bearish factors—absent demand recovery, a disproven peak season, expectations for mill production cuts, falling substitute raw material prices, and narrowing cost advantages—stainless steel scrap prices lack upward momentum. In summary, the short-term weak and stable market pattern is unlikely to reverse, and prices are unlikely to see a trend-driven rebound. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue consolidating within a range in a weak and stable manner.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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