Forecast For Jun 13-July 12: Weakening Consumption And Expectations For Production Resumptions In Yunnan To Weigh On Aluminium Prices

The flash US S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 53.8 in July, the lowest since March, while market expectations were for a rise to 54.3. In contrast, the flash services PMI came in at 53.6, an eight-month high, lifting the flash composite PMI to 53.6, also an eight-month high, with both readings significantly exceeding market expectations.

US President Trump, while discussing the "exit strategy" for the war with Iran at the White House, noted that the US faces two options: first, maintain current military operations or even escalate strikes to gradually dismantle Iran’s military capabilities; second, reach an agreement through negotiations. Trump mentioned that although Iran is interested in a deal, it is currently "not ready yet." He stated that the US can either keep the existing pace of operations or choose to intensify strikes more rapidly. Additionally, the US is still negotiating with Iran.

According to Yingketong, Midea Air Conditioning officially announced in July 2026 that it will no longer initiate the traditional Cold Year Opening for the 2027 new cooling year, instead fully committing to a new strategy of “battling for retail and competing for end-users.” This decision marks a temporary halt to the near three-decade-old model of “collecting payments in the off-season and chasing volume in the peak season” within the air conditioning industry. The “Cold Year Opening” is a unique business rhythm in the air conditioning sector. Typically, starting from H2 (from July/August to October/November), producers hold openings in batches through policy incentives to attract channel merchants to make advance payments and stockpile goods. Then, in H1 of the following year, they concentrate shipments through various large-scale sales promotions, creating a cycle of “pushing inventory in the off-season and chasing volume in the peak season.” The specific measures for Midea Air Conditioning’s cancellation of the new Cold Year Opening include: no longer holding opening meetings that involve centralized channel payments, policy lock-in, and large-scale stockpiling; abolishing the practice of “mandatory advance payments to lock in annual policies”; and shifting to terminal replenishment based on actual demand, with full-cycle normalized policies implemented.