Goldman Sachs and Citibank Cuts Iron Ore Price Forecast, with the Former Citing Surplus Steel in China and Slower Recovery of Property Sales

Published: Jun 12, 2023 10:31

Save

Although Singapore's iron ore swap has reached the $110/mt mark, Citibank expects iron ore to resume its decline and advises traders to sell during the rebound.

Although Singapore's iron ore swap has reached the $110/mt mark, Citibank expects iron ore to resume its decline and advises traders to sell during the rebound. Citibank cut its price forecasts for the second quarter by 4.3% to $110/mt, by 4.8% to $100/mt in the third quarter and by 14.3% to $90 a tonne in the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs also cut iron ore price forecast to $90/mt from $110/mt. Goldman Sachs pointed out that with the production target may be lowered, the risk of excess steel supply in China is becoming more and more obvious and said a slower recovery in property sales will lead to a 5% drop in steel demand.

Market review

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

11 mins ago

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (May 25)

On May 25, 2026, iron ore futures opened higher but retreated in the afternoon. The main contract I2609 finally closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices remained unchanged from the previous day.

11 mins ago

41 mins ago

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] Spot cargo trading recovered

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On May 25, the combined daily trading volume of HRC from SMM's sample enterprises across four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 14,210 mt, up 450 mt DoD (+3.3%), up 6.04% YoY (solar calendar), and up 62.59% YoY (lunar calendar).

41 mins ago

44 mins ago

[SMM Iron & Steel] German Crude Steel Output Rises 9.1% in Jan-Apr 2026 but High Material Costs Cloud Recovery

According to data released by the German Steel Federation (WV Stahl), Germany's crude steel production surged by 15.3% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 3.51 million metric tons (mt), bringing cumulative production for the first four months of the year (January-April 2026) to 13.56 million mt, up 9.1% compared to the same period in 2025. This production increase was primarily led by the oxygen-blown blast furnace route, which jumped 16.9% year-on-year in April to 2.45 million mt, while electric arc furnace (EAF) production rose by 11.7% to 1.06 million mt during the month. Despite these positive figures, WV Stahl stressed that this output spike reflects a low statistical base from 2025 rather than an industrial turnaround.

44 mins ago