SMM Analysis And Forecast For Of China’s Exports Of Unwrought Aluminium And Aluminium Semis

SHANGHAI, Jun 12 (SMM) – Customs data showed that China exported 475,000 mt of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis in May, up 2.94% MoM, but down 29.8% YoY. Exports totalled 2.32 million mt from January to May, a drop of 20.2% YoY, and the export value fell 30.7% YoY to $8.2 billion. The export growth on a month-on-month basis in May was mainly driven by peak season overseas and RMB’s deprecation.

China exported a total of 6.6 million mt of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis in 2022, up 17.5% YoY and a new record high. LME aluminium outperformed SHFE aluminium last year, creating considerable profits for China's aluminium semis exports. Moreover, growing overseas demand also boosted Chinese exports. In particular, aluminium semis exports rose significantly in H1. However, exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis weakened in H2, registering a YoY drop of 9.4% in Q4.

Considering the improved export profits and peak season for exports in May-July, exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis are expected to extend increase on a month-on-month basis in the future. However, exports are estimated to drop around 20% YoY.