MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (June 6)

Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, told the SteelOrbis Fall 2026 Conference and 95th IREPAS Meeting in Belgrade (Sept 27-29) that steel faces geopolitical conflict, shifting trade flows, higher costs and weak demand. Deteriorating Black Sea and Iran conditions are disrupting trade: damaged ports and unwilling shipowners make Black Sea business extremely hard, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers hamper Middle East flows. Higher oil, gas and coal prices lift costs for producers, scrap suppliers and shippers. Trade rules are tightening via EU CBAM and post-July 1 safeguards, US tariffs, scrap restrictions in 40 countries and China's curbs on loss-making pricing. Demand stays weak except for AI data centres, so costs, not demand, now push prices higher in almost all markets.

US tariffs are deepening the crisis in Canada's steel industry. Stelco plans to idle part of its Hamilton plant and cut hundreds of jobs, after Algoma Steel announced about 1,000 layoffs in Sault Ste. Marie. United Steelworkers director Marty Warren warned the industry is at risk without change. In March 2025, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, raising them to 50% in June. Canada shipped roughly 13 billion USD of steel to the US in 2024, more than any other country, per US Census data. Washington this week also announced a 15 billion USD mega mill in Iowa. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa will use all legal powers to hold Stelco owner Cleveland-Cliffs to its binding five-year employment commitments made in late 2024.

India plans to double coking coal output to about 140 million tonnes by 2030 from 66 million tonnes in FY2025, underpinning steel capacity growth to 300 million tonnes per annum; about 90% of steel-grade coking coal is currently imported. IEEFA warns that methane management must be built into planning to avoid decades of emissions lock-in: coking coal is roughly 50% more methane-intensive than non-coking coal, and 41% of reserves lie below 300 metres, where underground mining generates 85% of global coking coal methane. Seven of 30 operating mines, mostly in Jharkhand, emit 81%; seven planned mines would lift 2025 emissions to 234.7 kilotonnes. About 87% of abatable methane can be cut below 20 USD/tCO2e, a potential 125 kilotonnes. Scrap-based EAF needs just 12 kg of coking coal per tonne of steel against 770 kg for BF-BOF; India targets 50% scrap feed by 2047, from 23%.