ANZ Bank Is Bearish Towards Iron Ore Prices, Citing Four Big Headwinds In China, Including Real Estate Downturn

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

Today DCE iron ore futures trended firmer , though prices retreated slightly in the final hour of trading. The most-traded I2605 contract ultimately closed at 772 RMB/tonne, an increase of 1.38% from the previous trading session.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief: Domestic Iron Ore Prices May Have Some Room to Edge Up Next Week] This week, domestic iron ore concentrates prices showed a divergent trend with regional differences. Prices in Tangshan, Qian’an, Qianxi, and other areas of Hebei were mostly stable, while those in Chaoyang, Beipiao, Jianping, and other areas of western Liaoning fell by 20-30 yuan/mt; east China saw a slight uptick, with increases of 10-15 yuan/mt. Recently, due to safety inspections related to the Two Sessions, overall iron ore concentrates supply remained relatively tight, providing some support to iron ore concentrates prices. Meanwhile, iron ore futures have been relatively strong recently, which was expected to boost market confidence and drive a slight rise in domestic ore prices. It was expected that next week domestic iron ore prices would continue to edge up slightly.