SMM Comment: Oil Falls as Remarks by Russian Minister Contradicts Bullish Signal from Saudi Arabia, SHFE and LME Base Metals Outperform Ferrous Metals, Market Bets on US Rate Cut in September

Published: May 26, 2023 16:21 (GMT+8)

Source: SMM

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SHANGHAI, May 26 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:35 today, WTI oil fell 0.13%, and Brent oil fell 0.33%.

SHANGHAI, May 26 (SMM) - Crude oil: As of CST 11:35 today, WTI oil fell 0.13%, and Brent oil fell 0.33%. There is still no agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury's cash balance has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, concerns about debt defaults have intensified. In addition, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said he does not expect any new decision to cut production at the group meeting scheduled for June 4, contradicting the previous signal from Saudi Arabia. 　

US dollar: The U.S. dollar fell in intraday trading today. As of CST 11:35, the U.S. dollar index was at 104.11, down 0.1%. On May 25 local time, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy said that there are still unresolved issues in the negotiations between the two parties in the United States to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, and the outcome will not satisfy everyone. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was revised at an annual rate of 1.3%, slightly exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 1.1%, but still significantly lower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter. In addition, the core PCE price index in Q1 points to stubbornly high inflation.

In terms of interest rates, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 51.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in June, and expects a rate cut as early as September.

Metals market:

As of the mid-day close, SHFE base metals rose across the board: aluminum rose 1.76%; copper rose 1.19%, tin and nickel rose 1.1% and 1.04%, respectively; lead and zinc rose 0.13% and 0.5% respectively.

Ferrous metals prices mostly went up, with rebar up 0.52%, iron ore up 0.59%, HRC up 0.71%, stainless steel up 0.89%. However, coking coal fell 2.91%, and coke fell 3.1%.

LME base metals also mostly closed with gains, with zinc up 1.54%, copper up 0.8%. Only tin and lead fell 0.08% and 0.19% respectively.

In terms of precious metals, as of CST 11:35, COMEX gold rose 0.16%, and COMEX silver rose 0.24%.

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