China to Further Expand RMB Settlement for Cross-Border Trade, State Council Says

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Negotiations Kick Off, Silver Drifts Higher] SMM, August 3 – US-Iran negotiations kicked off, with risk-off sentiment intertwined with plummeting crude oil and a weakening US dollar. The market interpreted this as a net bullish factor, and silver prices rebounded. Spot trading was sluggish early this month, with both supply and demand remaining weak. Attention turns to guidance from US economic data.

[SMM Express] UBS has adopted a more bearish outlook for palladium, lowering its price forecast to around US$1,100/oz as it expects the global market to shift into a supply surplus during 2026. The bank projects an oversupply of approximately 200,000 oz, citing rising recycled metal availability alongside weakening demand from the automotive and investment sectors. Although global mine production is expected to decline compared with 2025, UBS believes the increase in recycled palladium will more than offset lower primary supply. Softer consumption from the autocatalyst industry, which remains the largest source of palladium demand, is also expected to weigh on market fundamentals. The bank noted that China's record palladium imports during the first half of the year were largely driven by the establishment of a new trading exchange rather than stronger underlying industrial demand. As a result, the import surge is not viewed as a signal of improving consumption. Looking ahead, UBS expects the combination of surplus supply and subdued end-user demand to maintain downward pressure on palladium prices. Market participants are likely to monitor recycling flows, vehicle production trends and developments in the automotive sector for further indications of the metal's price direction.