Copper Prices to Run at High Levels

SHANGHAI, Mar 14 - At the Two Sessions of NPC and CPPCC in China, the economic growth target for this year was proposed as lowered to 5%, suggesting that steady growth has become the main tone of China's economic development this year. With regard to China’s GDP, infrastructure and real estate will remain as important driving forces for stable economic growth. Going forward, there are expected to be more policy support for infrastructure and real estate sectors.

On the whole, although the stronger US dollar index has capped copper price gains, the recovery of domestic consumption has boosted copper demand.

At the beginning of March, the consumption of various copper semis picked up as expected. The destocking has accelerated while imported copper remains scarce. The strong market optimism will fade as the Two Sessions ended. As such, copper prices are expected to remain high this week. Should US CPI due this Tuesday top market expectations, the US dollar will continue to strengthen and limit the gains in copper prices. The most active SHFE copper contract prices are expected to move between 68,000-70,500/mt this week, and LME copper will trade between $8,700-8,900/mt.

In China’s domestic spot market, the demand is on the rise as expected. Despite rapid destocking last week, available seaborne copper did not increase sharply as it failed to return to profitability. The increasing exports tightened available spot cargoes, especially non-registered copper and hydro-copper. The contango of SHFE March copper contract over the SHFE April copper contract turned into backwardation. Spot premiums are expected to rise before falling this week, standing at 60-120 yuan/mt before the delivery of the SHFE March contract on Wednesday, and above zero after delivery.