The Market is Waiting for Policy Guidance, Copper Prices Stabilised

LME copper closed at $8,923.5/mt last Friday evening, a decline of 0.03%. Trading volume was 11,000 lots and open interest stood at 251,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2304 copper contract finished at 69,670 yuan/mt last Friday evening, up 0.4%. Trading volume was 20,000 lots and open interest stood at 150,000 lots.

On the macro front, although the Federal Reserve said that strong economic data may keep interest rates elevated, Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic said he prefers to raise interest rates in a slow and steady manner. In addition, the yen, which is particularly sensitive to long-term US-Japan interest rate differentials, rose last Friday, while the US dollar index fell.

On the fundamentals, as of Friday March 3, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese markets decreased 16,300 mt to 309,100 mt from last Monday, up 112,500 mt from pre-CNY holidays. Due to the increase in exports of domestic copper recently, arrivals in domestic warehouses have declined, and the downstream buyers have replenished inventories when copper prices fell. In terms of consumption, the peak season in March has seen a recovery in demand. But high copper prices are still one of the factors hampering consumption recovery.

If copper prices do not rise sharply, consumption is expected to continue to recover. The price of copper is stable, and it is expected to remain rangebound widely around 68,000 yuan/mt.