China Rebar Stocks up 14.4% on Week

The domestic ore market in Tangshan remained stable, with the current ex-works price of 66% grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis including tax at 940-950 yuan/mt. Concentrate producers are gradually fulfilling orders from steel mills, with a few holding prices steady through tenders from large mines. The low-grade market saw weak supply-demand conditions, making it difficult to find low-priced ore, while sellers also faced challenges in holding prices firm for shipments.

The most-traded HRC contract consolidated higher today, closing at 3,308, up 0.18% intraday. Spot prices mostly rose 5-10 yuan/mt, with some markets holding steady. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance decreased MoM this week, leaving HRC supply relatively ample. Demand side, market transactions were average today, with no significant pre-holiday restocking demand released. Raw material side, pre-holiday restocking is nearing its end, but near-term hot metal rigid demand remains resilient, making a downward breakout in raw materials unlikely before the holiday, though post-holiday negative feedback risks warrant caution. Looking ahead, coke demand has recently seen continued news regarding supply guarantees and capacity releases. While the impact on sentiment is relatively smaller than last week, it still caps upside. Recent improvements in steel port departures and export order-taking will provide some support to steel prices. The most-traded HRC contract is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term. Watch for pre-holiday demand release.