[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] 20260921

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking coal market:

Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was quoted at 2,510 yuan/mt.

Coking coal side, three departments issued a document allowing compliant coal mines to produce at approved capacity before year-end. Driven by policies to stabilise production and ensure supply, coking coal supply is expected to increase. A small number of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia resumed production, but progress fell short of expectations. Supply of coking coal and fat coal remained tight, and coking coal prices may stay in the doldrums in the short term.

Coke market:

The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (CDQ) was 2,420 yuan/mt.

Supply side, coke producers have moved out of deep losses, with most entering a slight-loss phase and some turning losses into profits, boosting production enthusiasm. Meanwhile, shipments were smooth and inventory stayed at low levels. Demand side, steel mills’ hot metal production remained high, and most steel mills’ coke inventory was at low-to-mid levels, indicating pre-holiday restocking demand. However, steel companies are mired in losses; coupled with weak demand for finished steel products, expectations for production cuts at steel mills have risen. Steel mills continue to restock on an as-needed basis, resist high-priced coke, and the rigid-demand restocking and loss-driven pressure offset each other. Overall, pre-holiday rigid-demand restocking provided support for coke prices, but steel mill losses constrained any rise. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, coke prices may remain temporarily stable in the short term. [SMM Steel]