Demand-Driven Lithium Carbonate Supply Deficit Extends in October, Lifting its Prices

The cobalt industry chain remained under pressure this week. Refined cobalt shot up and then pulled back amid phased purchasing, with the electronic trading price retreating from 289,000 yuan/mt to around 275,000 yuan/mt. Quotes and transactions for intermediate products remained absent, and sales pressure on miners gradually accumulated. Cobalt salt demand was weak, and cobalt sulphate fell into a negative feedback loop of "price cuts—losses—raw material declines—lower costs," with some recycled-source quotes dropping to 57,000–58,000 yuan/mt. Cobalt chloride and Co3O4 continued to weaken under downstream production cuts and sluggish end-use consumption. Cobalt powder downstream users were still digesting high-priced inventory, and new purchasing had yet to begin. Ternary cathode precursor and ternary cathode material prices fell along with nickel, cobalt, and lithium raw materials, with sluggish power demand prompting enterprises to turn cautious in quoting and purchasing. LCO's "September peak season" expectations fell through, with weakening cost support and insufficient end-user stockpiling, leaving short-term prices still at risk of further decline. Some enterprises may carry out small-scale stockpiling before the National Day holiday, but whether the industry chain can stabilize still depends on the recovery of end-use demand and the pace of inventory destocking.

According to a decision published by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Regulatory Authority for Subcontracting in the Private Sector (ARSP) on September 15, Glencore’s Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda Mining (MUMI) have been ordered to terminate existing contracts with subcontractors that do not meet local legal eligibility requirements and remove them from their supplier lists. The decision followed a regulatory review of the two companies’ suppliers and service providers. Of the 1,427 suppliers and service providers submitted by KCC, only 472 were registered by ARSP as eligible, while 955 failed to meet the required conditions. At Mutanda, 548 of the 1,133 submitted suppliers were deemed eligible, while 585 failed to qualify. Both companies are also required to submit remediation plans to ARSP within 30 days of receiving the notice and are prohibited from signing new subcontracting agreements with the affected companies until they achieve compliance. KCC and Mutanda are both major copper-cobalt assets in the DRC. Continued enforcement of the measures could increase supply-chain adjustment and compliance-management pressures for the two operations. The original source is ARSP’s official Decision No. 020/ARSP/DG/2026, dated September 11 and publicly released on September 15. For publication, retaining “KCC and Mutanda” in the headline would make the direct connection to Glencore’s key copper-cobalt assets in the DRC immediately clear to cobalt-market readers.

L&F signed a KRW 161.73 billion contract to supply lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to SK On and its designated affiliates. The agreement runs from September 17, 2026, through December 31, 2028, and represents 7.51% of L&F’s 2025 consolidated revenue. L&F will supply its high-density, third-generation LFP cathode material. The company plans to begin production at an annual capacity of 30,000 tonnes by the end of the third quarter of 2026 and expand the Daegu facility to 60,000 tonnes annually in the first half of 2027. SK On plans to use the material at its ESS-focused LFP battery lines in Seosan, South Korea, and Georgia, the United States. The company is converting 3 GWh of its 7 GWh Seosan capacity to ESS LFP production, with deliveries scheduled to begin in the first half of 2027.