SHANGHAI, Oct 8 (SMM) - The domestic market was suspended during the National Day holiday in the past week. In the foreign markets, prices of spot silver rose to $21.221/oz at the beginning of this week, and then dropped back and consolidated, closing at $20.113/oz on Friday October 7.
[Macro front]
Bearish: The U.S. unemployment rate for September released on October 7 was 3.5%, lower than the expected and the previous value of 3.7%. The seasonally-adjusted US nonfarm payrolls stood at 263,000 in September, lower than the previous value of 315,000 but higher than the expected 250,000. The manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in September was 48.4, lower than the previous and expected value of 48.5; the service PMI in the euro zone stood at 48.8, lower than the previous value of 38.9 and the expected value of 48.9.
Bullish: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in September announced on Monday was 50.9, significantly lower than the previous value of 52.8 and the expected value of 52.2; the US JOLTs job vacancy August released on Tuesday was 10.05 million, lower than the previous value of 11.24 million and the expected value of 10.78 million; API crude oil inventories in the US in the week of September 30 announced on Wednesday were -1.77 million barrels, lower than the previous value of 4.15 million barrels and the forecast value of 1.97 million barrels; on Friday, the monthly rate of August wholesale sales in the US recorded 0.1%., higher than the previous value of -1.4% but lower than the expected value of 0.4%. On Tuesday, the monthly rate of August PPI in the euro zone was announced at 5%, higher than the previous value of 4% and the expected value of 4.9%; on Thursday, the monthly rate of retail sales in the euro zone in August recorded -0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% but higher than the expected value of -0.4%.
[Other related content]:
On September 26, the Nord Stream-2 pipelines leaked in the Danish waters and on September 29, the fourth leakage point was found nearby. On October 3, the two pipelines of Nord Stream stopped leaking. On the very next day, Peskov said that the US has raised its LNG price after the accident of Nord Stream. On October 6, the Swedish Prosecutor's Office decided to lift the blockade around the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipelines, and the on-site investigation has now been completed.
On October 4, Zelensky signed a presidential decree that approved the resolution of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council that it could not negotiate with Russia. According to the resolution signed by Zelensky, Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia during Putin’s presidency.
The macroeconomic data at the beginning of the week was poor. At the same time, OPEC+ has cut production sharply, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the European energy crisis have further intensified, which jointly pushed the spot silver prices up to $21.22/oz. On Thursday, the US dollar stopped falling and rebounded, while spot silver prices edged lower, but the bullish momentum remained unchanged. The US unemployment rate in September and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in September released on Friday were lower than expected, providing downward momentum for spot silver. Therefore, SMM predicts that spot prices of silver may consolidate or decline next week, and prices of silver TD will trend higher to adjust its spread with spot silver.
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