Despite Slower Price Rise, Polysilicon Prices Unlikely to Fall in October amid Tight Supply

SHANGHAI, Sep 21 (SMM) – In September, the pace of domestic polysilicon price increase slowed down again. According to SMM data, the mainstream transaction price of domestic recharging polysilicon was about 310 yuan/kg, up 0.65% from the beginning of the month. The price rise was 1.66% last month. 

SMM believes that the main reason for the slowdown in domestic polysilicon prices in September is the easing of supply-demand imbalance. The domestic polysilicon output in September is expected to rise 13,000 mt to about 75,000 mt, due to the end of power rationing in Sichuan and the ramp-up of new production capacity from Tongwei, GCL, and Qinghai Lihao. On the other hand, although the output of downstream silicon wafers also increased in September, its increase was far less than expected. The domestic silicon wafer output in September is estimated at about 29.3GW, with an increase of about 2.5GW, while the market had expected the output to be 31GW. This was mainly because the Sichuan earthquake and the power rationing in Qingshan District, Baotou, Inner Mongolia, had a certain impact on the production of some local enterprises. 

With supply rising at a faster pace than demand and optimism over the long-term market outlook, the price increase slowed down.

Near the end of the month, the market transaction activity will gradually increase. SMM believes that the possibility of a decline in polysilicon prices in October will be small, citing the current supply deficit and firm offers of the top-tier producers.