[SMM Notice] SMM Newly Launches MHP Coefficient (Benchmarking SMM Battery Grade Nickel Sulphate Price Index)

[10.19 Morning Meeting Notes] US September PPI ran hot, with inflationary pressures broadening. September PPI rose 1.3% MoM, the largest gain in over four years (more than double the 0.6% expected), and climbed 6.3% YoY, the highest since December 2022. Gasoline surged 20% as the main driver, and core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade still rose 0.5%, indicating inflation is spreading to a wider range of sectors. Retail sales beat expectations. Traders still see a 91% probability of at least one rate hike before December. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2611) opened lower in early trading, dipped, then rebounded, closing the morning session at 115,790 yuan/mt, down 0.10%, with open interest down about 3,400 lots. US Treasuries and the US dollar retreated from highs, marginally easing macro pressure. SHFE nickel opened lower and rebounded in the morning session, but nickel's own high inventory and weak demand picture remains unchanged. The rebound was still driven by bear short-covering, lacking active bulls. Tonight's speech by Warsh is a key variable—if he remains dovish, sentiment may recover; if he turns hawkish, pressure will return. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 114,000-120,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: Weak Demand and Rising Substitution Advantage Drag Down High-Grade NPI Price Center] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 7.9 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,029.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included). The average price of the Indonesian NPI FOB index fell 0.7 $/nickel unit WoW to 133.2 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market continued to drift lower, with the price center moving down steadily and bearish sentiment intensifying.