Roaring Polysilicon Prices Suppressed Downstream Demand, and Domestic Import of Polysilicon Fell Significantly MoM in July

SHANGHAI, Aug 25 (SMM) – The customs data shows that China imported 6,065 mt of polysilicon in July, down 14.9% from June. According to SMM survey, the significant drop in July import was mainly caused by roaring polysilicon prices, which suppressed downstream demand. At the same time, thanks to the acceleration of domestic polysilicon production capacity expansion, the domestic supply of polysilicon increased. As a result, the import volume of polysilicon from January to July fell substantially by 32.9%.

In July, prices of polysilicon broke through 300 yuan/kg, and thanks to the cost support, the prices of modules also exceeded 2 yuan/w in the first week of July, which were higher than the costs of most terminal projects (1.75-1.97 yuan/w). In consequence, most terminal power stations lowered the purchase prices and suspended the construction of multiple projects. In response, the operating rates of module producers also dipped significantly, with leading producers cut their output by around 30%. The weak terminal demand, combined with the mounting cost pressure amid surging polysilicon prices, led to a downward trend in the demand for polysilicon.

In addition, the custom data also suggests that compared with 2021, China’s monthly imports of polysilicon in 2022 diminished significantly. According to SMM statistics, the domestic polysilicon import volume from January to July in 2022 totalled about 47,000 mt, while that in the same period of 2021 was 71,000 mt, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%. It was mainly because China started to take measures to achieve carbon neutrality since early 2021, so the market was generally optimistic towards polysilicon prices in the half of 2021. As a result, market players had competed to purchase and hoard silicon, while the domestic polysilicon production capacity at that time failed to meet the high demand, which led to a high import volume. However, during January and July in 2022, despite the tight supply of polysilicon, the multiple commissioned polysilicon projects improved China’s independent polysilicon supply, hence the import volume decreased subsequently.