Last week's conclusion: the precious metals market was generally strong last week, but the logic of the main trading line was still unclear, and the shrinking table trading rose during the week. Expectations of a rate hike moderated in the first half of the week after the US CPI data were released, as some Wall Street banks expected US inflation to peak in March, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed the same view, and the precious metals market rose on the back of easing expectations of a rate hike. However, crude oil and the CRB index continued to rise in the second half of the week, market inflation expectations and monetary policy tightening expectations rebounded again, especially the strengthening of contraction transactions and the differentiation of yields between the long and short ends of US Treasuries, but gold remained strong, reflecting that it is difficult to form a reason for precious metals to fall, regardless of moderation in interest rate hikes or tightening monetary policy expectations under inflation expectations. However, we still need to beware of multiple profit-taking pressure.
Focus this week: the US market data is light this week, so it is recommended to pay attention to the real estate data. Fed Eagle King Brad will give a speech early Tuesday morning, and Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Bowie and ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in IMF discussions on the global economy in the early hours of Friday. The beige book on the US economy will be released on Thursday.
Strategy: medium-and long-term bullish, technical gold short-term is expected to further attack 2000-2010 may be, the operation of more than a single to continue to hold, and set near 2000 to stop earnings. However, if it falls below 1967, it is recommended to make more profits, and the price of gold may return to 1930 or even 1900. The SHFE gold resistance level is also expected to move further up to 409, supporting 401 below. It is suggested that if the pullback to area 390 is still dominated by bargain buying. Silver is currently testing the pre-high resistance of 26.2, but it is still finding support near the 5-day moving average, and there is a big gap between long and short. If it is high before the breakthrough, it is expected to try again on 27.5; if it falls below the 5-day moving average, it will step back around 24.8. More than one order in front of the operation can lose weight every time. The resistance level above SHFE silver is around 5250. After the breakthrough, it is expected to further test the previous high 5400 area, but if it falls below the 5-day moving average, it may step back on the 5000 area.