Q1 net profit hit an all-time high! 14 times lithium Danniu high pullback 60% silicon-carbon negative electrode can become the second growth curve?

The stock price of Shida Shenghua, the electrolyte leader in the middle reaches of the lithium industry chain in the high prosperity track, rose as much as 1465.18% in two years. However, the high correction was also brutal, with share prices falling nearly 60 per cent so far.

After today's trading, Shida Shenghua announced an advance announcement on its first-quarter results. It is estimated that the net profit of returning to its mother in the first quarter of 2022 is 445 million yuan to 472 million yuan, an increase of 91.86% 103.50% over the same period last year. On the same day, the company disclosed its annual report for 2021 that the net profit for the whole of last year was 1.178 billion yuan, an increase of 353.60% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit of Q4 in 2021 is 437 million yuan.

It is worth noting that the net profit in the first quarter of this year is expected to be as high as 472 million yuan, setting a record high again after the fourth quarter of last year. However, there was only a slight increase of 1% and 8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

As of today, within six months, a total of 5 institutions have forecast the performance of Shi Da Shenghua in 2022, of which the average estimated net profit is 1.521 billion yuan. From the after-hours release of the actual maximum forecast for the first quarter, it accounts for about 30% of the average ratio of institutional forecasts.

For the reasons for the growth in performance, Shi Da Shenghua said in the announcement that it benefited from the company's new energy-related products to maintain full-load production; Shi Da Shenghua (Quanzhou) Phase I project vinyl carbonate plant was successfully put into production, ethylene carbonate products were sold in bulk in the first quarter; production equipment continued to carry out technical transformation, further reducing production costs.

According to the information, carbonate solvent is one of the three main materials of lithium-ion battery electrolyte. As a supplier of lithium battery solvents, Shi Da Shenghua's main products include carbonate series, lithium hexafluorophosphate and additive products. Among them, the revenue of C "H" O series accounts for more than 50%. At present, Shi Da Shenghua is the largest manufacturer of carbonate products in China, and the export volume of carbonate solvents accounts for 70% of the domestic export volume of carbonate solvents, with a global market share of 40%.

Lu Rixin of Oriental Securities said in a research report on January 10th that at present, the price of battery-grade solvents is basically stable, and the market price of C "H" O "is about 13000 yuan, benefiting from the growth in demand for high nickel and the relatively limited supply. Solvent profits are still considerable. In 2022, with the industry hexafluorine, additives and other new capacity to take the lead in production, while the release of solvent capacity is limited, it may become a relative deficiency in the electrolyte industry chain.

In addition, Shi Da Shenghua is also gradually laying out silicon-carbon negative electrodes and wet electronic chemicals to create a second growth curve. The company previously said on e-interaction that the 1000-ton / year silicon-based anode material production line, which was trial-produced in 2021, has sent samples to downstream battery manufacturers for evaluation, and has planned a 20, 000-ton silicon-based anode project.

With regard to the field of silicon-based negative electrodes, China International Capital Corporation said that with Tesla, Ningde era and other enterprises have begun to mass produce power battery products that use silicon-carbon negative electrodes, 2022 is expected to become the first year of industrialization of silicon-carbon negative electrodes, and the permeability is expected to reach 50% in 2025, corresponding to the demand for about 70, 000 tons of silicon-carbon negative electrodes.

According to the feasibility study report of the 20, 000 tons / year silicon-based negative electrode project published by Shida Shenghua, the sales price of its silicon-based anode products is expected to be 73000 yuan / ton. the gap is small with the price of high-end graphite anode materials currently sold in the market (about 70000 yuan / ton).

Cao Xute of Shengang Securities pointed out in the research report on March 28th that the future company's 100000 tons / year methyl ethyl carbonate plant project, 20, 000 tons / year silicon-based negative electrode and 11000 tons / year additive project are all expected to be put into production in December 2023, and the capacity will be further expanded.

However, it should be noted that the demand for products such as upstream raw materials and downstream new energy vehicles has a greater impact on the company's performance. Oriental Securities Lu Rixin and others suggested the relevant risks in a research report on January 10. According to the price trend of solvents since last year, C "H" O "(DMC), which is still the main product of the company, is relatively volatile.

According to Cao Xute's profit forecast and valuation, the year-on-year growth of net profit in 2022 is expected to be 25.99% (compared with the estimated growth rate of 364.93% in 2021), and 18.73% in 2023.