Citic Construction Investment Securities issued a research report that the lightweight and rapid development of cars, aluminum die-casting demand prospects. With the rapid improvement of the permeability of new energy vehicles, the breakthrough of integrated die-casting technology has brought ultra-high prosperity to the aluminum die-casting industry. With the upgrading of materials, equipment and processes, the technical barriers of the industry are raised, and the trend of technological upgrading of the industry is clear. Recommend Quanfeng Automobile (603982.SH), Wencan shares (603348.SH), Guangdong Hongtu (002101.SZ), 601689.SH Group (601689.SH), suggest to focus on the positive transformation of Xusheng shares (603305.SH), Aicodi (600933.SH), Yitai shares (605133.SH).
The main points are as follows:
With the rapid development of lightweight automobile, the demand of aluminum die casting has a broad prospect. Under the background of "carbon neutralization", new energy vehicles have more advantages in energy saving and emission reduction than traditional fuel vehicles. According to the passenger car Association, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China will continue to rise in 2021, with an annual penetration rate of about 14.8%. As the policy continues to increase, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to account for more than 50% in 2030. At present, mileage anxiety has become the main problem restricting new energy vehicles in China. Automobile lightweight can effectively reduce vehicle weight and alleviate mileage anxiety. Automobile lightweight can be divided into material lightweight, process lightweight and design lightweight, and the three major measures complement each other to form a variety of lightweight schemes. Considering the weight loss rate, performance-to-price ratio of aluminum alloy and the maturity of die-casting process, aluminum die-casting has become the preferred lightweight scheme. It is estimated that China's automobile aluminum die-casting market will grow from 94.8 billion yuan to 165.6 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, and CAGR will be about 15%.
With multiple breakthroughs in materials, equipment and technology, the industry has gradually transformed to integrated die-casting. The traditional automobile manufacturing is mainly made of steel, and the production process is mainly divided into stamping-welding-painting-final assembly. The lightweight demand increases the proportion of aluminum alloy for vehicles, while the combination of steel and aluminum increases the difficulty of the connection between aluminum alloy and steel, so the traditional welding process is difficult to meet the production requirements. With Tesla taking the lead in breaking through the integrated die-casting process, Rhine, Alcoa and Lizhong have successively developed heat-free alloys, Lijin and Haitian continue to break through large-tonnage die-casting machines, head aluminum die-casting enterprises have accumulated mold design capacity and production experience, the industry has the conditions for the transformation to large-scale and integrated die-casting. We believe that compared with the traditional stamping-welding process, integrated die-casting can significantly reduce production line, welding, labor and service costs, improve material utilization, and achieve the overall manufacturing cost and production efficiency. At the same time, it also comprehensively raised the barriers of the aluminum die-casting industry, and the capital and technical advantages of leading enterprises are highlighted.
Tesla set off an integrated die-casting revolution, leading enterprises have followed. The traditional aluminum die-casting process is mainly used in car body, powertrain, chassis and interior parts. At present, small and medium-sized aluminum die castings have been widely used, the demand of three electricity and chassis aluminum die casting is increasing rapidly, the technology is accelerated, and the permeability of car body die castings is low at present. Volkswagen began to study the all-aluminum body as early as 1982. Due to the use of the traditional stamping-welding process, 14 splicing methods were used, but it could not be widely popularized because of the immature technology and high cost. At the end of 2020, Tesla took the lead in breaking through the all-aluminum body integrated die-casting and successfully realized the integrated molding of the rear plate of Model Y, which set off a revolution in automobile manufacturing. Tesla's breakthrough led other enterprises to actively follow up. Weilai is the first domestic die-casting company with integrated layout of car body. Xiaopeng and ideal continue to follow. Traditional car companies sell mainly low-and middle-end new energy and fuel vehicles, and hold a positive attitude towards integrated die-casting, but in the core three electricity and chassis parts are gradually increasing the use of aluminum die-casting.
