Lithium carbonate "upwards" new energy vehicles "where to go"?

The price of lithium salt is "fiercer than the tiger". If it is not effectively curbed, the growth target of new energy vehicle sales this year is expected to be no small challenge.

Previously, a number of domestic institutions predicted that China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022 are expected to exceed 5.5 million, or even reach 6 million, with a penetration rate of more than 20%.

However, the ferocious rise in the price of lithium carbonate seems to have become a "roadblock" on the way to this goal.

In mid-February, the Euler brand issued a notice to the terminal that black cats and white cats would stop taking orders. Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, said frankly that after the subsidy retreat and the rise in the price of raw materials in 2022, "every black cat sold today will bear a loss of more than 10, 000 yuan." It is reported that the two products of Euler Black Cat and White Cat are positioned as A00 pure electric vehicles, with cumulative sales of more than 88000 vehicles in 2021, accounting for more than 65% of the total sales of the Euler brand.

Changan Mercedes-Benz EMES, which belongs to A00-class pure electric vehicles like Euler Black Cat and White Cat, reported the news of stopping taking orders in November last year, and industry insiders speculated that it was also caused by the rise in the price of raw materials.

The latest data show that battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 5500 yuan / ton on March 4, with an average price of 500000 yuan / ton. It is worth noting that the price of the product was only around 50,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021, and now it has increased by more than 900%.

According to the calculation that 1 KWh lithium battery needs 0.6-0.8 kg lithium carbonate, if the price of lithium carbonate 50,000 yuan / ton in January 2021 is compared with the current price of 500000 yuan / ton, the battery cost of a 30-degree battery pack for A00 cars will increase by about 8100 yuan, which is only the cost increase brought about by the rising price of lithium carbonate as a raw material.

At present, the selling price of A00 and A0 class cars is about 3-100000 yuan, which is relatively sensitive to cost, and the battery accounts for the largest proportion of the cost. And if lithium carbonate prices continue to maintain this high level, or even continue to rise, then as the price transmission, more models of A0 and below are expected to follow in the footsteps of Euler.

It is understood that in 2021, China's output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 3.31 million, of which Hongguang mini, Chery eQ, Mercedes-Benz, Euler Black Cat, Zero running T03 and other A00-class cars reached 630000, and A0-class cars produced 370000, accounting for 30.3% of new energy passenger vehicles.

In addition, due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the supply side has also changed. Recently, there is news in the market that because of the crazy rise in the price of materials such as lithium carbonate upstream, some battery companies have begun to adjust battery orders for minicars to "produce as many battery orders for highly profitable models as possible. To ease the cost pressure."

If the production of A0 and below models is forced to be cut due to rising battery costs, or if prices rise directly, it is expected that the overall sales growth of new energy vehicles this year may be affected.

In fact, not only the A00-level A0 market, but also the A-level market is still a very price-sensitive new energy vehicle market, and the impact of the price increase of battery materials on the relevant markets is very obvious.

For the A-class and above model market, in the face of the rapidly rising prices of raw materials upstream, it has also transmitted pressure to consumers.

Similarly, in the mid-end car market, according to the 60kWh of a car battery pack, the cost has risen at about 16000 yuan since the beginning of last year because of the rising price of lithium carbonate.

According to industry statistics, as of early March, at least 16 new energy car companies had announced price adjustments, involving at least 36 models, covering the mainstream car purchase range of 100000 yuan to 300000 yuan. Including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng and other previously issued price increase announcements, the rise of new cars ranges from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.

For middle and high-end models, the power battery in its cost composition is lower than the mini car, its ability to digest this part of the price increase is stronger, at the same time, consumer acceptance will be relatively higher. According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, the proportion of A-class and B-class cars produced by new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market will be about 57.1% in 2021, and it is expected that the overall production proportion of A-class ~ B-class vehicles will continue to expand this year.

It is worth noting that the current price of lithium carbonate has not stabilized and seems to be accelerating. At the beginning of the year, it took a month for the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate to rise from 300000 yuan / ton to 400000 yuan / ton, but it only took about 20 days to rise from 400000 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton.

From the actions of a number of car companies, high prices will undoubtedly restrain part of the demand, and make the profit distribution of the entire industrial chain a huge unfair, some links have been at a loss in production, there has been obvious resistance in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

Recently, there are rumors in the market that Ningde era and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have lowered their production plans in the near future, hoping to resist price increases by reducing production. However, the Ningde era denied the news.

But the news is not expected to be groundless. Ningde era, which holds many high-quality car orders, is the leader of power batteries in the world, and has obvious advantages in purchasing scale and cost. at the same time, its layout of upstream materials is earlier and more perfect, and the yield of the production line is also in the leading level. all these make it more cost competitive than second-and third-line battery enterprises.

For second-and third-line battery enterprises, the soaring price of lithium carbonate is undoubtedly a major blow. On the one hand, if you want to compete with leading enterprises such as Ningde era, you cannot lose in price; on the other hand, in order to ensure delivery, you have to keep up with your production capacity. Even if you take goods at a loss, you have no choice but to ensure production.

A careful study of this round of price increases, the factors behind it are also very vigilant. On the one hand, the rapid outbreak of electric vehicles and energy storage industry, and the rapid expansion of power and energy storage batteries lead to the price rise caused by the blowout demand for materials such as lithium carbonate; on the other hand, capital speculation and middlemen hoarding goods are also important drivers.

In July 2021, Pilbara, a supplier of lithium concentrate, auctioned off a small amount of spodumene concentrate on its auction platform for $1250 a tonne, well above the market price of $735 a tonne over the same period. In September of the same year, PLS held its second auction, which fetched a sky-high price of US $2240 per tonne (the market price for the same period was US $1000 per tonne). This has also greatly raised market expectations for the price of lithium salt, and the price of lithium carbonate has accelerated.

Industry insiders said, "Lithium carbonate is actually tight and not short, and the high price is caused by man-made panic buying, some of which manufacturers prepare goods in advance, and there are also dealers hoarding."

The supply chain risk and unreasonable price increase of new energy vehicles have attracted the attention of the government. Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference of the State Information Office that the development of domestic resources such as lithium and nickel will be moderately accelerated this year to crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and driving up prices.

There is no doubt that paying attention to the "crazy" lithium carbonate as soon as possible, cracking down on illegal hoarding and speculation and making its prices reasonable will really be conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Otherwise, the price of fast-conducting batteries will undoubtedly greatly reduce the development of new energy vehicles.

The development of electric vehicles and energy storage industry is in full swing, and the demand for lithium carbonate and other key raw materials will only continue to increase rapidly in the future. At present, a number of head battery companies have carried out the in-depth layout of the industrial chain in the four main materials of lithium resources, lithium salts and lithium batteries, in order to cope with the uncertainty of the industrial chain.

In addition, for medium and low-end models, lithium manganate, sodium ions and other alternative technologies for lithium iron phosphate are also expected to usher in opportunities.