Rusal Announced to Suspend Its Second Largest Alumina Refinery Located in Ukraine

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

[SMM 주조 알루미늄 합금 모닝 코멘트: 알루미늄 합금 선물 반등 지속; 현물 거래, 강성 수요 위주] 최근 해외 ADC12 가격이 지속 하락하며 오늘 시세는 $3,100~3,200/mt 범위로 추가 하락했다. 한편, 중국 내 ADC12 가격은 알루미늄 스크랩 원가 지지를 받아 비교적 견조한 흐름을 유지했으며, 이에 따라 국내외 가격차가 꾸준히 회복되며 수입 손실이 더욱 축소되었다. 현재 ADC12 1mt당 수입 손실은 약 1,087위안으로, 3월 초 수준까지 되돌림되었다.