Tight upstream supply and cost of lithium electricity push up the price of new energy vehicles [institutional review]

Core points:

The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is high, but the performance of listed companies is high, and the high valuation can be digested. Since December last year, new energy vehicle stocks generally have a pullback, hot spots are scattered, and the logic of the main line is missing. Considering that it mainly experienced a rapid rise in the early stage, there is fear of heights in the market, superimposed year-end / pre-festival liquidity impact. As of 2022, the Wande New Energy vehicle Index rose 28.8% in the past year, while the valuation (PE,TTM) fell 28.4% to 61.3 times. The valuation dropped significantly, mainly due to the company's profits. It is true that the valuation of new energy vehicles is high, but we believe that there will be a high growth in sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 (3.521 million new energy vehicles in China in 2021, a sharp increase of 158% over the same period last year), and the industrial chain is booming. The performance of relevant listed companies is to be expected, and high valuations can be absorbed.

The current time is approaching the period of intensive disclosure of the annual report / quarterly report of listed companies. With the release of the 2021 annual report of the relevant listed companies, the high performance growth has been realized, the valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is expected to be further explored, and the investment value is highlighted.

The price of lithium remains strong, and the change in the political situation in Chile has aroused market concern.

The third round of rapid rise in lithium prices has been launched since December last year, with seasonal factors. It is expected that the rise in lithium prices will slow down after the Spring Festival and reach its current high level, but it will remain strong. Since the leftist leader Boric Boric was elected as Chile's new president in December 2021 (he will take office in March 2022), changes in Chile's political situation have attracted market attention. Borich advocates the nationalization of lithium mines, and constitutional amendments have been put on the agenda. In addition, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia are discussing the establishment of an organization of lithium producing countries, and Mexico is also interested in joining.

The supply of lithium diaphragm is tight.

1212.24 Shanghai Enjie and Ningde Times signed a "prepayment Agreement", stipulating that Ningde Times will pay 850 million yuan in advance to Shanghai Enjie to guarantee the supply of lithium diaphragm from Shanghai Enjie to Ningde era in 2022, with a supply amount of about 5.18 billion yuan. 1According to 19, Shanghai Enjie signed a "guarantee supply Framework Agreement" with China Chuangchuang Airlines, in which Innovation Airlines paid 100 million yuan in advance to Shanghai Enjie to guarantee the supply in 2022.

At present, lithium diaphragm enterprises are full of production and sales, and their production capacity is tight. Ningde era "advance payment Agreement" and China Chuangxin Airlines "guarantee supply Framework Agreement" pierced window paper, revealing that lithium diaphragm supply is tight. Locking lithium diaphragm supply first has become an urgent task for power battery enterprises.

The price of BYD's new energy vehicles has gone up.

BYD announced an increase in the price of new energy vehicles. Since Tesla raised his quotation several times at the end of 2021, a number of car companies have followed the announcement of price increases, especially for some hot-selling models, which are in short supply and wait for a long time to pick up their cars. In this case, car companies have the strength to raise their quotations.

Investment suggestion

It is suggested that we should pay attention to the leading companies of lithium materials, and with the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging it more and more deeply; at present, the hot sales of new energy vehicles lead to a surge in demand, while the supply of lithium ore is rigid, benefiting from the sharp rise in product prices under the contradiction between supply and demand. The company's performance is very flexible! Although there has been a huge increase in the previous period, there are still opportunities; traditional car companies are the valley of valuation, and the market has almost ignored the active transformation of traditional fuel car companies into new energy vehicles for many years, and there are opportunities for value revaluation in the long run. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.

Risk hint

The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy, and the economy fluctuates violently; the competition in the new energy vehicle industry intensifies; the competition in the power battery industry intensifies.