SMM January 14: the new energy market shows a rapid growth trend in 2021. The sales of new energy vehicles reach a new high every month, with annual production and sales reaching 3.54 million and 3.52 million, an increase of 160% over the same period last year. In addition, the demand for lithium batteries is also on the rise. According to the Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries reached 154.5 GWH in 2021, an increase of 143% over the same period last year. Among them, the annual installed capacity of ternary batteries was 74GWH, accounting for 48%, an increase of 91% over the same period last year; the annual installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 80GWH, accounting for 52%, an increase of 227% over the same period last year! In recent years, the power installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeds that of ternary battery for the first time in the whole year.
According to the monthly data in 2021, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries gradually increased from 38% at the beginning of the year to more than three yuan for the first time in July this year, accounting for 51%. Since then, the proportion of monthly installed capacity has remained at more than 55%. With the improvement of iron lithium CTP and blade battery technology last year, LFP battery has the advantages of increased energy density, better safety and low cost due to its increased market demand in all segments. In addition, with the sharp rise in the price of raw materials this year, there is more room for cell cost increase, and the performance and price of iron-lithium battery is higher than that of ternary battery, resulting in an increase in the demand for iron-lithium in power, small power and other areas.
January-December 2021 power battery installed capacity (unit: MWh)
Source: power battery industry innovation alliance data, SMM
In 2021, the installed CR10 of the power lithium battery market was 92.2%, an increase of 2% over the same period last year, an increase of 83.4%, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, an increase of 3.6%, and a further increase in overall market concentration.
Judging from the installed ranking of lithium battery enterprises, more Chinese battery companies have improved their installed ranking this year, of which Ningde era still holds the first place, with a higher market share than in 2020 (46.3% to 52.1%). The price of raw materials for lithium batteries has increased rapidly in 2021, and many battery companies are in short supply due to insufficient supply of raw materials, resulting in a lower supply than expected. On the other hand, Ningde era began the distribution of lithium raw materials in the fourth quarter of 2020, and strengthened the supply chain of electrolyte solvents in 2021. Due to the advantage of raw material cost control throughout the year, its orders were delivered in a relatively timely manner.
In addition, AVIC Lithium overtook LG Chemistry to become the third runner-up in 2021, mainly due to the increase in the order of the head car company and the adjustment of product structure. AVIC lithium electricity this year as the main supply of GAC MOTOR, driven by a big increase in GAC sales, the installed capacity has increased rapidly. In addition, the proportion of Changan Automobile and SAIC GM Wuling has also increased, and new car-building customers such as Xiaopeng and Zero have been introduced. In addition, AVIC Lithium increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate this year, and strengthened the performance of ternary batteries to better match the needs of different car companies, and the installed capacity increased by 176% compared with the same period last year.
The installed capacity of LG new energy in China has decreased by 7% this year compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in the proportion of Model 3 and Model Y ternary batteries this year, which is the main customer of Tesla. The increase in demand for lithium iron phosphate is gradually radiating from Chinese car companies to overseas car companies, and it also poses a threat to overseas battery companies that only make ternary batteries, so this year LG Chemical also announced that it will enter the lithium iron phosphate market. In addition, SK also began to lay out the lithium iron phosphate industry chain.
In addition, Honeycomb Energy, Tafel New Energy and Funeng Technology have been ranked higher this year. Honeycomb Energy has gained popularity in the new energy market after promoting cobalt-free batteries in 2020. In the first half of this year, from relying mainly on Great Wall to the second half of this year, it gradually expanded to other customers, such as Geely, Dongfeng, Zero and other car companies. In addition, Honeycomb's overseas development is relatively smooth. It has received a lot of ordering letters from overseas car companies, such as PSA, OTOKAR, and so on, and Honeycomb is expected to start production of 30GWh in Europe in 2023, laying the foundation for entering overseas markets. The main customers of Funeng Technology are BAIC and Daimler. GAC and other auto companies are introduced in 2022, and it is expected that there is great potential for development in the future.
Source: power battery industry innovation alliance data, SMM
On the whole, new energy battery enterprises will blossom in 2021. With the improvement of their own lithium battery technology, they will work with domestic car companies to enhance the performance of new energy vehicles. In addition, they will also increase their orders for overseas car companies and begin to build factories at sea one after another. It is expected that this year, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium battery enterprises will continue to grow rapidly compared with the same period last year, and enhance the influence of overseas markets. At present, the market pattern of power battery has changed greatly, and lithium iron phosphate products are expected to occupy the main advantage in the past two years under its strong advantages. in addition, with the increase in demand for lithium iron by overseas car companies and the outbreak of energy storage markets at home and abroad, the high growth rate of demand for lithium iron phosphate battery continues unabated.
SMM New Energy Research team
Yi Yanting 021-51666860
Mei Wangqin 021-51666759
Huo Yuan 021-51666898
Liu Xiaoyi 021-51666716
Yuan Ye 021-51595792
Ren Pengfei 021-51595913
Ma Rui 021-51595780
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