Driven by the continuous destocking and the decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Europe, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose and returned to 20000 yuan / ton. At the same time, the price of raw material alumina has dropped, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum has an obvious downward trend. Industry insiders expect that the price of electrolytic aluminum will remain high, and the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are expected to continue to improve.
Multi-factor resonance
On December 31, 2021, the average price of electrolytic aluminum rose 220yuan / ton to 20350 yuan / ton, rising again to 20000 yuan / ton, according to SMM.
From December 26 to 31, 2021, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has been reduced by 65000 tons, and the total inventory has exceeded 200000 tons since December 2021. At the same time, the European market has reduced production one after another. In addition, the policy of reducing carbon by 5% in the electrolytic aluminum industry during the 14th five-year Plan period is expected to further support prices. " Liu Xiaolei, director of the big data department of SMM, said in an interview with reporters.
The agency points out that France's Dunkirk Aluminium, Europe's largest aluminium smelter, has limited production over the past two weeks. Citic Futures said that given the continued reduction in production capacity in 2022, capacity in relevant European regions has been reduced by nearly 800000 tons.
SMM statistics show that as of December 30, 2021, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major areas of China was 799000 tons, a decrease of 65000 tons compared with the previous week. As of early December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 37.46 million tons / year, and the completed production capacity was 43.75 million tons / year, with an operating rate of 85.6 percent of the country's electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
According to SMM statistics, in November 2021, the operating rates of domestic aluminum profile, aluminum cable, aluminum plate, strip and foil, and recycled aluminum alloy enterprises were 54.18%, 41.93%, 79.19% and 57.79% respectively, with an increase of 2.05,2.19,5.99 and 5.38 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month.
Aluminum price remains high
Aluminum prices are rising, while costs are moving down, and profits per ton of aluminum are gradually improving.
Industry insiders said that at present, the trading price of alumina basically fluctuates around 2820 yuan / ton, which is not small compared with the price of more than 4000 yuan / ton in October 2021, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to change.
By the end of 2021, China's alumina production capacity has reached 88.6 million tons per year. The new capacity is concentrated in the southwest. At the same time, the prices of pre-baked anode and cryolite stabilized.
"overall profits rebounded." Liu Xiaolei told reporters that as of December 24, 2021, a profit of about 2523 yuan per ton of aluminum. After entering December 2021, electrolytic aluminum enterprises returned to the profit range.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the demand from new energy vehicles, Electroweb and other fields is in the ascendant. Industry insiders said that domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to be destocked, production reduction in Europe continues to ferment, aluminum prices are expected to maintain high operation, and related corporate profits are expected to continue to improve.
