SMM Nickel March 3 Update:
Macro and Market News:
(1) Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and will attack all vessels attempting to pass through.
(2) On March 2, Zheng Shajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a symposium with private enterprises to hear opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing investment, and achieving a good start for economic development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
Spot Market:
On March 3, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,400 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,950 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for major domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in early trading but then plummeted, closing at 138,300 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 1.12%.
The sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has rapidly increased market risk aversion, leading to further adjustments in nickel prices. The medium and long-term logic of tightening mine supply remains unchanged, and it is expected that the most-traded SHFE nickel contract will continue to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.
