CLEPA: electrification transformation will lead to 275000 net layoffs in European automobile industry

According to foreign media reports, the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles may mean that as many as 500000 jobs will be laid off by EU auto parts suppliers by 2040, according to a new study by CLEPA, an industry trade group. The corresponding job growth in the electric car parts industry will not fully offset the loss of jobs in internal combustion engines, with only 226000 new jobs in the electric car parts industry, which means 275000 net layoffs. Among them, the countries with the highest number of unemployed are Germany (121000), Italy (74000), Spain (72000) and Romania (56000).

This could happen if the EU only allows the sale of zero-emission cars after 2035. The EU plans to reduce emissions by 55 per cent from 2021 levels by 2030. CLEPA calls for a variety of technologies to reduce vehicle emissions, including hybrid technology, green hydrogen fuel technology and the use of renewable fuels. CLEPA points out that this approach could also reduce emissions by 50 per cent while maintaining current employment levels.

According to the study for CLEPA by PricewaterhouseCoopers, European car parts suppliers employ 1.7 million people, while carmakers employ about 1.2 million. In addition, there are about 1.21 million jobs in the tire, body manufacturing, chemical, battery and electrical equipment industries and about 3.2 million jobs in the support services sector.

The study considered three questions: what is the impact of different powertrain technologies on the value that suppliers can add? What is the corresponding impact on employment? What is the impact on climate goals?

Most of the "value added" of electric vehicles will come from batteries, from raw materials to batteries to battery packs to recycling. However, the battery industry is just emerging in Europe, and there are many battery superfactories planned, but only a few are currently operating.

The study found that with the development of the electric vehicle industry, the number of jobs for auto parts suppliers of internal combustion engines will be greatly reduced, especially after 2030. At present, there are 599000 jobs in the European internal combustion engine parts industry, but that number will fall to 513000 by 2030 and to 153000 by 2035.

Three power system schemes are set up in this study.

Hybrid technology: hybrid technology will reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the current 95 g / km to 20 g / km by 2040, adding 200000 jobs.

Pure electric car technology: carbon dioxide emissions will fall to zero by 2040, but 275000 jobs will be lost accordingly.

In one "radical" scenario, carbon dioxide emissions will fall to zero by 2030, but more than 360000 people will be unemployed.

"the needs of society are too diverse to adopt an one-size-fits-all approach," de Vries said in a press release. A regulatory framework open to all available solutions, such as hybrid technology, green hydrogen and the use of renewable fuels, will make innovation possible because we will redefine travel in the coming decades. "