Investment strategy: (1) basic metals: this week, the prices of basic metals have also been greatly adjusted due to the sharp decline in commodity prices such as thermal coal. We believe that this round of price adjustment is affected by policy, capital and market sentiment on the one hand, and the continued impact on the real estate industry chain on the other hand has deepened market concerns about the demand side of basic metals. In the medium term, the Fed Chairman's latest speech basically sets the direction of liquidity tightening in the future, and the base metals will maintain a high shock pattern. In the long run, metal prices return to fundamentals, aluminum is expected to hit the ceiling of 45 million tons of production capacity the year after next, the lack of supply elasticity overlaps the increase in supply interference rate, and the fundamentals support the aluminum price center to move up gradually. Individual stocks: this week, the base metal sector continued to adjust, the core factor is the fall in commodity prices. In the short term, the continuous rise of electricity price continues to erode the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, but with the gradual adjustment of thermal coal prices, the profit margin of electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises continues to improve. In the medium term, the power restriction policy overlays the control of energy consumption, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, which will gradually show a weak pattern of supply and demand. In the long run, under the background of carbon neutralization, electrolytic aluminum continues to be tightly balanced, and the aluminum price center is expected to continue to rise, driving the company's performance growth. Keep an eye on Chinalco (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Zijin Mining (601899). Secondly, you can pay attention to Shenhuo shares (000933), Yunnan Aluminum shares (000807) and Western Mining (601168). Hong Kong stocks focus on China Hongqiao (1378) and China Nonferrous Mining (1258). (2) the prices of new energy metals: lithium concentrates and lithium salts continue to rise sharply. In September, lithium mine imports remained low, the import growth rate was much lower than the lithium salt production growth rate, and the lithium salt production growth rate was lower than that of positive electrodes and new energy vehicles. We believe that the short-term price increase reflects a tight supply, and the record high lithium price may be just a new starting point. In the medium term, the rapid growth of demand driven by new energy vehicles aggravates the supply gap, and the rising trend of lithium prices remains unchanged. In the long run, the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles in China in the future is relatively certain, the demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper foil is expected to grow rapidly, and the lithium mine may continue to have a gap due to resource constraints. Individual stocks: this week, the lithium plate stopped falling and rebounded. We believe that in the short and medium term, the logic of price increases will continue to drive the plate upward.
In the long run, the high demand for lithium-nickel-cobalt copper foil precursors may lead to the growth of the company's performance. Lithium resource with scarcity attribute and quantity-price double logic is the first choice, followed by processing stock volume logic. Focus on Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466); Zang GE Holdings (000408) and Yongxing Materials (002756), other concerns: lithium: Rongjie (002192), Jiangte Motor (002176); Cobalt and Nickel: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Hanrui Cobalt (300618) and Shengtun Mining (600711); Ternary precursors: Greenmei (002340), Zhongwei (300919) and Huayou Cobalt (603799); positive: Dangsheng Technology (300073) and Rongbai Technology (688005); Copper foil: Nord shares (600110) and Jiayuan Technology (688388).
Weekly market review: the non-ferrous metals sector fell 0.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.75%.
In the sub-industry, rare earths, magnetic materials and new metal materials rose by 6.41%, 3.85% and 3.31% respectively, while other rare and small metals and aluminum fell by-3.36% and-2.94%, respectively. Individual stocks: Fuda Alloy (61.17%), Huafeng Aluminum (24.83%), German Nano (22.78%), Sichuan Energy Power (22.57%), Jiangte Motor (22.01%), Dongmu shares (20.25%), Yunhai Metal (15.61%), Quartz shares (14.05%), Tiantong shares (13.51%), Jiayuan Technology (13.04%). Quantity and price:
Basic metals: copper prices: LME and SHFE are-4.65% and-1.94% respectively; aluminum prices: LME and SHFE are-9.45% and-11.39% respectively. The global copper inventory is 43.2 million tons (- 286) million tons, and the global aluminum inventory is 209.23 (+ 4) million tons. Energy metal: lithium price: lithium concentrate 9.4%, industrial carbon 3.4%, electric carbon 5.7%, Wuxi battery grade lithium carbonate 8%, lithium hydroxide 4.3%; cobalt price: MB standard cobalt 5.8%, spot electric cobalt 3.9%, cobalt chloride 9.5%, Wuxi electric cobalt 4.4%; precursor: cobalt tetrachloride 3.9%; positive price: lithium iron phosphate 17.3%, NCM523 2.6%; Negative price: artificial graphite (middle) 6.2%; copper foil price: no change; electrolyte: lithium hexafluorophosphate (domestic) 14.1%; diaphragm unchanged. Precious metals: us 10-year Tips Treasury bonds-1.03 per cent and dollar index-0.38 per cent; gold 2.01 per cent and silver 4.06 per cent.
Major events: macro: the NDRC continues to strengthen commodity price regulation. Fed Chairman Colin Powell says high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but still expects inflation to fall back to its target of close to 2%. If the Fed sees a serious risk of rising inflation expectations by mid-2022, it will raise interest rates, and said the Fed will complete its plan to scale back its bond-buying program by mid-2022. Industry: Sichuan strictly forbids the implementation of preferential electricity prices for the electrolytic aluminum industry, and the Antofagasta copper-nickel mine may suffer from a mining ban. Company: continued high growth in the third quarter, Zijin Mining Serbia Paiji Copper and Gold Mine officially put into production.
Risk tips: basic metals: liquidity tightening, global economic recovery lower than expected; precious metals: liquidity tightening; new energy metals: overvaluation, falling prices; rare earth magnets: prices fall, valuations are high.
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