[agency Review] 4680 Battery-driven Lithium Industry chain is upgraded again

Lithium battery faucet re-expansion, snatching position layout 4680 battery technology

Giant production expansion: recently, Ningde Times plans to invest in the construction of battery production base projects in Xiamen (construction period is expected to be no more than 26 months, 8 billion lithium-ion battery production lines are expected to be built) and Guizhou (construction period is expected to be no more than 18 months, 7 billion construction power and energy storage battery production line). Yiwei Lithium Energy Synchronize announced a substantial expansion of production, and plans to complete a fixed asset investment of 30.521 billion yuan and build a Jingmen Power Energy Storage Battery Industrial Park project with an annual output of 152.61 GWh in Luodao District, Jingmen City. Yiwei Power, a subsidiary of Yiwei Lithium Energy, respectively invested in the construction of 20GWh passenger car large cylindrical battery production line and auxiliary facilities project (investment of about 3.2 billion yuan) and 16GWh square lithium iron phosphate battery production line and auxiliary facilities project (investment of about 3 billion yuan) in Jingmen High-tech Zone, with a total fixed asset investment of about 6.2 billion yuan. 4680 battery landing process accelerated: according to Panasonic, basically ready for mass production of Tesla 4680 battery, is currently building a production line and trial production in Japan, when the technology is complete, it will move towards large-scale production. Tesla Synchronize is expected to install equipment, pending trial production of 4680 batteries.

The application progress of 4680 large cylindrical batteries at home and abroad is accelerating. 4680 battery advantages: (1) high energy density, using high nickel and silicon-based negative electrode route, silicon-based materials break through the bottleneck of existing lithium materials capacity density, to create a higher energy density system, suitable for luxury electric vehicles; (2) fast charge faster, through the all-pole ear technology to optimize the structural design of large cylindrical cell, greatly reduce the impedance, and the fast charge performance can be three times higher than that of conventional monopole core. (3) CTC technology reduces cost, integrates the battery directly into the chassis of the vehicle, removes modules and battery packs, reduces the use of structural components and parts, reduces weight, reduces the cost of some raw materials, and increases the energy density per unit mass.

The development of the industry has gradually entered the growth peak in 2022, focusing on the leading companies and their industrial chain to return to the main line of growth is still Tesla (creating demand), Ningde era (battery is the highest barrier link in the electric vehicle industry chain, extending to BYD, Yiwei LiNeng and other leaders), Longji shares (leading photovoltaic innovation) industrial chain. With the gradual introduction of new products and the improvement of product power of the leading companies, the industry penetration is expected to continue to accelerate upward, and we expect that 2022 will be a relative peak for the development of the electric vehicle industry. In the coming year, the battery link will benefit from the marginal loosening of the upstream price, the improvement of downstream permeability, and product innovation, which is in a better investment period.

4680 and other product innovations drive the upgrading of the industrial chain, which is good for the technology-leading subdivision track leaders to pay attention to the reduction in costs brought about by product innovation by leading companies, such as 4680 batteries. The recent expansion of the 100 million-latitude lithium energy 20GWh large cylinder is a major turning point in the industry, which can essentially increase the use of high-nickel ternary, thus fully reducing the cost of the cylinder (10-20% less than 2170 batteries with the same energy density), thus opening up the industry space. Large cylindrical industry chain benefits: battery (Yiwei lithium energy, etc.), shell (Kodali, etc.), high nickel ternary (Dangsheng technology, etc.), silicon-carbon negative electrode, additives and so on.

Tesla BYD continues to expand its volume and pays attention to the changes in the benefit target of the relevant industrial chain and its competitive pattern. BYD and Tesla have improved their product strength, and the opportunities in the industrial chain are obvious; especially BYD, its output is obvious in 2022. We will continue to make breakthroughs in blade batteries and battery external supply. BYD industrial chain fully benefits: negative electrode (Zhongke Electric, etc.), aluminum plastic film (Zijiang enterprise, etc.), diaphragm (Xingyuan material, etc.), flat wire (gold cup electrician, etc.), charging (Xinrui Technology, etc.) and so on.

Risk hint: overseas production expansion is accelerated and domestic technological progress is not as good as expected.