BYD raises battery price auto companies' profit margins are under pressure again [SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly]

SMM, Oct. 29:

Battery and downstream end market: a total of 1.757 million new energy passenger vehicles were insured from January to September 2021, a year-on-year increase of 194%. Among them, six major new car-building forces (including Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng, Hezhong New Energy, Zero run, Weima) accounted for 15% of the total market, a slight increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. However, in absolute terms, the number of car-building new forces insured reached 264000, a sharp increase of 225% over the same period last year, 31 percentage points higher than the average market, and the performance was very eye-catching. From the perspective of enterprises, among the current new forces of car building, Ulai delivered 66000 vehicles, an increase of 151%. Although it is still at the top of the list, the delivery performance of a single model is mediocre, among which ES6 fell from the fifth to 14th place in the same period last year, and was counterattacked by ideal One and Xiaopeng P7.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt intermediates: spot prices of electrolytic cobalt rose this week. Overseas enquiries for cobalt beans are still hot, and prices continue to rise. Drive the price of cobalt intermediate products to rise, the cost of domestic electrolytic cobalt enterprises rise, stack to the warehouse continues, the price goes up. The price of cobalt intermediate goods has risen this week. The long-term Association is about to discuss the rise in overseas electrolytic cobalt prices, the deepening of the delay of shipping logistics in South Africa in October, and the continuous increase in the quotation of cobalt intermediate products. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 39.5-413000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is 5000 yuan / ton higher than last week. SMM Cobalt Intermediate prices range from $23.6 to $23.9 per pound, up $0.50 per pound from last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the price of cobalt salt rose this week. The cost of raw materials is rising, and the quotation of cobalt salt is up. The cobalt salt purchased by the downstream precursor enterprises decreased extremely in the second half of the month, especially the purchase heat of cobalt sulfate by ternary precursor enterprises. Battery-grade nickel sulfate rose this week. The negative expectation of the new energy direction has not been fulfilled at present. Although the ternary squeeze of lithium iron phosphate continues, it has not yet been transmitted to the upstream, and nickel consumption remains high at present. The short-term nickel price is expected to be short-term, and the nickel price is expected to rise after the coal price is stable, while the production reduction of nickel sulfate autolysis part of the production capacity will become a signal that the nickel price will be empty again. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM this week is 9.1-93000 yuan / ton, an average price up 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 10.4-106000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 1000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate is 3.55-36500 yuan / ton, the average price is 200 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: the price of cobalt tetroxide rose on Thursday. Although the inventory pressure of cobalt tetroxide increases, the cost of raw materials and accessories rises, the quotation of cobalt tetroxide suppliers increases sharply, and the transaction price rises. The current price of cobalt tetroxide in SMM this week is 33.6-340000 yuan / ton, an average price of 4000 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Ternary precursors: the price of ternary precursors remains unchanged this week. In terms of cost, the price of cobalt sulfate rose slightly this week, the cost of auxiliary materials was strong, and the cost of precursors rose slightly compared with last week. In terms of supply and demand, the production capacity of precursors is basically unaffected by power cuts, the downstream procurement is reduced, the overall ternary orders are less than expected, and the precursors are in excess supply. In terms of price, due to the influence of cost, the market transaction price has increased recently, but considering that there are low-cost products for sale in the market, the purchasing demand of superimposed materials enterprises has weakened and the price has risen slowly. This week, the prices of SMM ternary precursors (type 523), SMM ternary precursors (single crystal), SMM ternary precursors (type 622) and SMM ternary precursors (type 811) are 12.3-127000 yuan / ton, 12.9-133000 yuan / ton, 13.45-139500 yuan / ton and 14.4-150000 yuan / ton, respectively.

Lithium carbonate: the upward range of lithium carbonate prices slowed significantly this week. At present, the mainstream price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 19.2-198000 yuan / ton, and the mood of high price is significantly lower. The mainstream price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 17.7-185000 yuan / ton, and it is difficult for traders to ship. The Jiangxi region began a small power cut this week, which is expected to reduce the overall output of that month by only 200-250 tons, with little impact. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate this week is 19.1-196000 yuan / ton, an average price up 3500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium carbonate is 18.25-187500 yuan / ton, up 2000 yuan / ton from last week.

Lithium hydroxide: the price of lithium hydroxide rose slightly this week. The demand for lithium hydroxide continues to be weak. In October, the market is expected to accumulate more than 1800 tons, accounting for about 10% of the total market supply. It is difficult for manufacturers to ship goods. There is no deal for the higher quotation in the early stage, or there is the possibility of lowering the quotation. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 18.4-189000 yuan / ton this week, up 3500 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder) is 19.1-197000 yuan / ton this week, up 3500 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 17.7-180000 yuan / ton, up 3000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt rose this week. Some lithium cobalt oxide material enterprises are limited by the influence of electricity, and the supply is declining. On the demand side, the downstream lithium cobalt battery factory is based on low raw material inventory, raw material cobalt tetroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate price upward, the purchase intention is strong, and the transaction price of lithium cobalt material increases. The price of SMM4.4V lithium cobalt is 38.7-394000 yuan / ton this week, up 7000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary materials: the price of ternary materials has gone up this week. In terms of cost, the price of lithium salt rose slightly this week, the price of precursors remained unchanged, and the total cost of ternary materials continued to rise. On the supply side, the impact of power cuts has been alleviated, but the output reduction during the National Day holiday is larger and downstream orders are weaker, and the overall industry supply continues to decrease this month. In terms of price, affected by cost, the price went up, but the battery enterprises' demand for ternary materials was lower than expected, and the price rose slowly. The price of SMM ternary material (523) is 21.3-222000 yuan / ton this week, up 2500 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622) is 22.7-236000 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary material (811) is 25.1-261000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged this week. In terms of cost, the rising trend of lithium carbonate prices has slowed down, while the recent price of upstream phosphoric acid has been adjusted back, driving the price of iron phosphate down rapidly. the current mainstream transaction price is about 24000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate has declined. In terms of supply and demand, the impact of power cuts in some areas has been weakened. Although there are still some power restrictions in Guangdong, Hunan and other places, the overall production and sales of local manufacturers have warmed up and the supply has gone up. In terms of price, the current trend of upstream raw materials of lithium iron phosphate is different, but due to the current gap between supply and demand, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, lithium iron phosphate is expected to rise steadily in the future. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 8600-90000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 8.1-84000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate has risen this week. Recently, some raw materials in the upper reaches of lithium manganate, electrolytic manganese dioxide and manganese tetroxide have continued to rise, among which manganese tetroxide has been shut down and reduced production by some manufacturers due to power limitations. at the same time, the supply chain is mainly guaranteed for electrolytic manganese dioxide, which leads to a decline in the supply chain and promotes the price upward. at present, the procurement price of some manufacturers has risen to 45000 yuan / ton. At the same time, due to the current raw material prices superimposed power constraints, some small and medium-sized battery factories, and lithium manganate manufacturers stop production and reduce production, orders to the head of the concentration trend is obvious. It is expected that the price of lithium manganate will continue to rise in the future. The price of SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) is 6.1-65000 yuan / ton this week, an average price of 4000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 7. 1-74000 yuan / ton, up 4000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Negative material: the price of negative material is still expected to rise after the post-holiday price adjustment this week. In terms of raw materials, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has risen slightly by about 200 yuan / ton this week, and the price of needle coke has been running steadily; in terms of graphitization processing, due to the influence of local power cuts, the operating rate of graphitization in the market has been greatly reduced, and the high graphitization price has been maintained at about 25000 yuan / ton, with some zero unit prices reaching 28000 yuan / ton. On the supply and demand side, the market supply is limited by electricity, the shipping increment is difficult, the supply of negative materials continues to be tight, and the market inventory is low, so prices still have upward momentum in the late fourth quarter. The price of SMM artificial graphite (high-end) is 7.5-76000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM artificial graphite (mid-end) is 5.51-62000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM natural graphite (high-end) is 5.2-64000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM natural graphite (middle end) is 3. 4-44000 yuan per ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Diaphragm: the price of diaphragm is flat this week. In terms of supply and demand, it is currently in the traditional peak season of automobiles, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow. Diaphragm enterprises have saturated production plans and accelerated the release of new production capacity; in terms of raw materials, PP/PE futures prices have fallen slightly, and lithium PVDF import prices have reached 60-700000 / ton due to shortages of raw materials and continuous high shocks that are short-term irreplaceable in the short term. In terms of price, small and medium-sized battery factories due to scattered orders, bargaining power is less than the head, diaphragm prices have been raised. However, the head diaphragm factory is cautious about general inflation because it is worried about the intensification of competition in the industry. Prices are expected to rise slightly in the future. This week, the prices of SMM wet base membrane (5 μ m), SMM wet base membrane (7 μ m) and SMM wet base membrane (9 μ m) are 2.5-3.3 yuan / square meter, 1.8-2.2 yuan / square meter and 1.2-1.5 yuan / square meter, respectively, which are the same as last week. The price of SMM dry base film (16 μ m) is 0.9-1 yuan per square meter, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM wet coating base film (5 μ m + 2 μ m) is 3-3.8 yuan / square meter, the price of SMM wet coating base film (7 μ m + 2 μ m) is 2.2-2.6 yuan / square meter, and the price of SMM wet coating base film (9 μ m + 3 μ m) is 1.8-2.5 yuan / square meter, the average price is the same as last week.

Electrolyte: the price of electrolyte goes up this week. At present, the overall tight situation of supply and demand in the electrolyte market continues, the gap between supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate still exists, it still takes time for some manufacturers to release capacity, and the upward force is still there. VC prices have been temporarily stable recently, and the current new production capacity in the industry has slightly alleviated the imbalance between supply and demand to a certain extent, but the current downstream demand still has a volume trend, and it is expected that the electrolyte will continue to rise steadily in the future. This week, the price of SMM electrolyte (ternary power) is 10.9-119000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week, the price of SMM electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 10.2-108000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2000 yuan / ton higher than last week, and the price of SMM electrolyte (lithium cobalt) is 11.4-123000 yuan / ton. The average price of SMM electrolyte (lithium manganate) rose by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average price increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Future forecast: cobalt, overseas prices continue to rise, driving domestic cobalt prices up. Although the rising cost of raw materials and auxiliary materials has a strong support for the price of cobalt products, but from a fundamental point of view, the pressure of cobalt salt and cobalt tetroxide will increase, and it is expected that there is a risk of a correction in cobalt prices. From November to December, due to the substantial increase in ternary and iron lithium, the demand increases obviously, while the supply side is affected by the cooling and production reduction in Qinghai, and the monthly output decreases compared with the previous month, which may lead to the obvious removal of the stock in the market, and the price may still have a upward trend.

SMM New Energy Research team

Yi Yanting 021-51666860

Mei Wangqin 021-51666759

Huo Yuan 021-51666898

Liu Xiaoyi 021-51666716

Yuan Ye 021-51595792

Ren Pengfei 021-51595913