Open source securities: Shenhuo shares greatly increase the profitability of electrolytic aluminum and maintain its buy rating

According to a research report released by open source securities, the substantial increase in the performance of 000933.SZ is mainly due to the rise in the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and the substantial release of plate performance flexibility. The bank expects the company to set aside 455 million yuan in asset impairment in the first half of the year, which will have a limited impact on performance. The company's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be fully released in the second half of the year, while aluminum prices remain high, providing strong support for the company's performance growth. As a result, the bank raised its profit forecast for 2021-23, with an estimated net profit of 29.8max 37.1 / 3.99 billion yuan (the previous value 25.6Compact 32.9 / 3.66 billion yuan), compared with 730.3% ash 24.8% ash 7.5%. The bank maintained a "buy" rating of 1.33% 1.66pm 1.79 yuan (the previous value 1.15x47xt 1.64 yuan) and the corresponding share price PE of 7.9pm 6.3pm 5.9 times the previous share price, which is the same as that of the previous stock price, which is estimated to be 29.8pm 37.1 / 3.99 billion yuan (the previous value is 25.6lash 32.9 / 3.66 billion yuan).

The company issued a semi-annual performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected that 2021H1 will achieve a net profit of 1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 582% over the same period last year. Based on this, it is estimated that 2021Q2 realized a net profit of 860 million yuan, an increase of 47.5% over the previous month.

The main points of open source securities are as follows:

Both quantity and price rise, resulting in a great increase in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum.

Sales volume: according to the announcement, with the gradual commissioning of the Yunnan hydropower-aluminum integration project, the equity sales of 2021H1 electrolytic aluminum products increased by 156200 tons compared with the same period last year (2020H1 equity sales were 411600 tons, 2021H1 equity sales were estimated to be 568000 tons, an increase of about 38% over the same period last year). Price: the company's aluminum price per ton (excluding tax) rose 32.12% year-on-year (2020H1 ton aluminum excluding tax price is 10837 yuan / ton, 2021H1 estimated at 14317 yuan / ton). In terms of market prices, the company's electrolytic aluminum price increases are basically in line with market fluctuations, fully enjoying the rising dividends of aluminum prices. Cost: affected by the increase in anode carbon, electricity, labor and other costs, the cost of 2021H1 per ton of aluminum increased by 8.91% compared with the same period last year, and the cost increase was much lower than the price increase. The rise in volume and price promotes the high growth of the company's performance.

The impact of power restriction in Yunnan has subsided, and the production capacity is about to usher in a full scale.

In May 2021, due to the shortage of power supply in Yunnan, the production capacity of 150000 tons of the second series of the third section of the Yunnan electrolytic aluminum project originally planned to start production in June was postponed due to the power restriction policy. at the same time, another 150000 tons of production capacity of the company has been suspended and regulated, causing a certain disturbance to Q2 production. With the advent of the flood season, the power cuts in Yunnan have ended one after another, and the company's production capacity is about to return to the right track. It is expected that the new and closed capacity will be put into production by the end of August, when the company's 1.7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be fully put into production (800000 tons in Xinjiang + 900000 tons in Yunnan). In addition, Shenlong Baoding high-end double zero aluminum foil project phase I 55000 tons project will be officially transferred to the production stage in the near future.

The high boom in electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue, and since the company's performance release carbon peak carbon neutralization target has been set, the double control policy on energy consumption in various parts of the country has become stricter, and Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have increased the control of electrolytic aluminum and other high energy-consuming industries one after another. as a result, the progress of new production capacity has been delayed, the stock production capacity has been affected by certain production restrictions, and the supply side is tight as a whole. At the same time, the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity (4400 ~ 45 million tons) has strong certainty, and the future increment space is limited. Therefore, under the background of steady increase in demand, the tight supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to support the high aluminum price. In addition, the central bank cut the reserve requirement may create a loose liquidity environment for commodity prices.

Risk tips: coal and aluminum prices fell more than expected; coal mine shutdown and production reduction risk; Yunnan project progress is not as expected.