The price increase of the original factory is more than 3 times that of MOSFET. How long will the trend of price increase last?

Since 2020, under the superposition of many factors at the level of supply and demand, the price of power devices MOSFET has risen sharply. The shortage of MOSFET is more obvious this year. At present, the orders of the original MOSFET factory are all full, and the major MOSFET factories are still raising the price of MOSFET. Industry agents told me that at present, the original factory has a number of MOSFET products price increase of more than 3 times, and the supply cycle is also infinitely extended.

At the same time, the epidemic has led to indefinite city closures in Malaysia, which aggravates the tight supply of products. Industry insiders pointed out that under the circumstances of load reduction in the operation of the local closed test plant and the lengthening of international logistics time, the supply of MOSFET in the second half of the year will be more serious, while the shortage problem may continue to push up MOSFET prices.

The price of the original product has increased by more than three times.

Since the second half of last year, the "dominoes" caused by the shortage of wafer capacity began to spread gradually, and the prices of wafers, closed tests, materials, chips and other products continued to rise, especially MOSFET and other chips.

In September 2020, Shenzhen Draper and Shenzhen Jinyu Semiconductor, the two major MOSFET manufacturers in Shenzhen, took the lead in initiating the price increase letter, almost without interruption on the MOSFET price increase letter. According to the author's incomplete statistics, up to now, many MOSFET manufacturers have issued price increase letters, including Jetty Micro, Xin Jie Neng, Shilan Wei, Hua run Wei, Yang Jie Technology, Fuman Electronics, BYD Semiconductor and so on.

An agent said to the author, "at present, the prices of products in the original factory have basically doubled, and individual products may increase by 7-8 times." For example, a charging MOSFET product used to be 0.08yuan per product, but now it is 0.25yuan, while the 0.1yuan product has basically risen to more than 40 million yuan, with a price increase of more than three times. "

It is worth mentioning that chip products such as MOSFET have risen rapidly since April this year. "the price of the product has risen too fast. It was all right in March this year. From April to May, the price rose very fast. Basically, the price of one price a day may be the process of issuing an order to delivery. The price of the product has risen three or four times. This year, we have a MOSFET product with a price of 0.35 yuan at the time of order, as a result, the price rose to 0.70 yuan at the time of delivery, and then we didn't want it, but other agents bought it at a purchase price of more than 1 yuan, and now the purchase price of this product has risen to 1.5 yuan. " The above-mentioned agents said.

In addition to MOSFET products, other chips such as power management chips, driver chips, MCU and so on are also rising greatly. It also said, "in fact, the market demand is not so big, basically traders are hoarding goods, these goods are basically in Huaqiang North."

While the prices of products such as MOSTEF continue to rise, it also enhances the profitability of relevant manufacturers. Judging from the results in the first half of the year, the net profits of MOSTEF manufacturers such as Jetty Micro Power, Xin Jie Neng, Yang Jie Technology and Fuman Electronics have all doubled, of which the net profit of Xin Jie Neng has increased by more than 200%, and the net profit of Fuman Electronics has increased by more than 11 times.

For the substantial improvement in performance, the above manufacturers all said that since the second half of 2020, due to the acceleration of domestic substitution of semiconductors and the rise of emerging applications, the strong market demand for products such as MOSTEF has led to the sustained growth of the company's performance.

How long will the price rise last?

At present, the supply and demand of global MOSTEF products is still tight, especially under the capacity constraints of the large IDM factories in Malaysia, the industry may set off another wave of price rise.

Under the circumstances that the epidemic continues to spread, the Malaysian government has put forward an iron fist plan to extend the city closure policy indefinitely. Although the semiconductor industry has special permits, the production line can only maintain 60% of the original manpower, which also has a great impact on the closure of the test production chain at the back of the IDM plant.

As the center of closed test production in the global semiconductor supply chain, more than 50 semiconductor factories have set up factories in Malaysia, including Intel, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, NXP, Texas Instruments, on Semiconductor and other major international IDM manufacturers, and the local closed test capacity accounts for about 13% of the global closed test capacity. Among them, most of the MOSFET or diode equal power semiconductors produced by European and American IDM factories in their own 6: 00 and 8: 00 wafer factories are completed in the latter part of the process in Malaysia's own closed test plants.

The equipment industry said that the closed test equipment has a high degree of automation, and under the condition of load reduction operation, the local semiconductor closed test plant in Malaysia can still maintain about 70% of the total production capacity, but whether the chip logistics is smooth or not will be the biggest test.

Industry insiders said bluntly to the author, "the impact on the production capacity of IDM factories in Malaysia will further aggravate the tight production capacity of MOSFET, especially the MOSFET products used in the field of power supply, are currently in a very shortage stage, before the supply cycle is two months, now some products supply cycle has been extended to 4-5 months, and even some products have no delivery at all. Now it is impossible for the original factory to supply new customers, we can only guarantee the orders of old customers. "

In addition to the extended supply cycle, Infineon, ST, on and other leading power semiconductor manufacturers also raised product prices in June. And domestic manufacturer Yangjie Technology also said on the interactive platform that there has been a price increase in the company's products recently, and the product price adjustment is the joint effect of many factors, such as the increase in upstream costs and market supply and demand, which is a situation faced by the entire industry.

Although international MOSFET manufacturers have raised product prices one after another, some industry insiders told the author, "compared with April-May, the prices of domestic MOSFET products from the original factory basically did not rise in the past two months, but they will not reduce prices either." At present, agents sell some products at reduced prices, which are previously hoarded at low prices, and they need funds to operate and may sell some products at a low price. "

However, this does not mean that the tension in products such as MOSFET will ease. "recently, a domestic trader has recently purchased hundreds of millions of yuan of MOSFET products for a single model of charging, or aggravated the shortage of MOSFET supply. It is expected that the original factory will start a wave of price increases in Q4." The above-mentioned people said that, in fact, the market demand is not that great, basically traders are hoarding goods, and the prices of these products are likely to fall significantly two years later.