SMIC welcomes the lifting of the ban of 40 billion yuan tomorrow. How can I get behind Science and Technology Innovation Board?

On July 16, SMIC, which has the largest market capitalization of Science and Technology Innovation Board, will usher in the lifting of the ban, which is about 775 million shares. According to the latest closing price (55.17 yuan), its market capitalization is as high as 42.778 billion yuan, ranking second among all A-share shares this week.

SMIC's lifting of the ban shares is the company's initial public offering strategy to allocate restricted shares, these shares come from its 27 shareholders. Among them, the market capitalization of the second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, GIC Private Limited, Qingdao Juyuan Core Equity Investment Partnership and China Information and Communications Technology Group have all exceeded 4 billion yuan.

So far, SMIC's share price has risen 100.91% compared with its offering price. 27 shareholders involved in the IPO strategic placement have a total floating profit of about 21.475 billion yuan.

According to the statistics of Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, another 10 shares of Science and Technology Innovation Board and SMIC were lifted this week, ranking SMIC, Junshi Biology and Guo Shield Quantum in the top three by market value.

Junshi Biological has lifted the ban on 355 million shares today (15th), and its share price closed down 10.54% on the day. After-hours data showed that Junshi Bio had 44 major transactions today, with a total turnover of 18.4151 million shares, with a transaction value of 1.135 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 61.64 yuan. The volume of bulk transactions accounted for 118.97% of the transaction value of the day, with a discount of 6.61%.

Guodun Quantum lifted the ban on 25.7523 million shares on the 12th, and the share price closed up 4.48% on the day, but the share price has fallen slightly by 0.95% since the lifting of the ban.

Is there a "golden pit" for Science and Technology Innovation Board to be released?

According to statistics, the number of Science and Technology Innovation Board's restricted shares lifted in July was 3.955 billion shares, with a market capitalization of more than 230 billion yuan (Note: the scale of future lifting will be calculated according to the current closing price). Both the number and market value of lifting the ban are the second highest in history, second only to July 2020, when the scale of lifting the ban was as high as 352 billion yuan.

The scale of Science and Technology Innovation Board's lifting of the ban gradually declined from the second half of this year to July next year. In the second half of the year, the scale of Science and Technology Innovation Board's lifting of the ban basically dropped to less than 100 billion, while that of Science and Technology Innovation Board rebounded at the end of the year. The overall scale of lifting the ban on Kechuang Board in the coming year is relatively small, with a small peak in March and June.

In terms of the scale of a single lifting, the top 20 companies with higher lifting volume in the second half of the year are: Qianxin, SMIC, Kangchino, No. 9, Cambrian, Junshi Biology, Funeng Technology, Central Control Technology, Shengxiang Biology, Hengxuan Technology, Kaisai Biology, Siripu, Micro Corporation, Aibo Medical, Goodway, Longteng Optoelectronics, Xinyuan shares, Titan Technology, Yihuatong, Paineng Technology.

Will this huge wave of lifting the ban affect the trend of Science and Technology Innovation Board plate? At present, a number of analysts have expressed optimism about this, believing that the lifting of the ban is not enough for fear, and is optimistic about the long-term development of Science and Technology Innovation Board.

Wang Yang and Chen Hao, strategists at Zhejiang Merchants, reviewed the historical data of Kechuang Board and analyzed the impact of the lifting of the ban on the stock price on the non-listed day. After analyzing the lifting of the ban on the non-listed day since July 2019, statistics of the rise and fall of 5, 10, 30 and 60 trading days before and after the lifting of the ban showed that individual stocks generally fell slightly before the lifting of the ban. This negative impact will continue to 5-10 trading days after the lifting of the ban. Looking back, the overall trend of individual stocks is upward after the lifting of the ban.

Ni Yan, an analyst at Guangfa Securities, said that Science and Technology Innovation Board faced a wave of lifting the ban of 200 billion yuan in July, which was one of the potential drop-down items in Science and Technology Innovation Board's valuation, but according to the current ratio of ultra-low holdings reduction to the scale of lifting the ban, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is expected that the valuation pressure for the lifting of the ban by major shareholders in three years may be greater.

Chen Guo, chief strategist at Anxin Securities, further said that we prefer to regard this wave of lifting the ban as Science and Technology Innovation Board's "bar mitzvah": a huge amount of lifting the ban is actually a bad release, waiting for a "boot / landing", if a "golden pit" is formed. then incremental funds can be allocated at a more appropriate price; and if industrial capital has not actually reduced its holdings, it can be tested to produce "real gold". With the end of the tide of lifting the ban, the stock price performance of Science and Technology Innovation Board is expected to better reflect its performance and true value.