The downward analysis of the year-on-year growth rate of the macro data in May said that it was affected by the base figure and was in line with the expected acceleration

Analysts said May's macro data showed that economic repair continued and the pace of recovery was basically in line with expectations.

Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Zhang Xiaoguan)-the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May on Wednesday, showing that due to the impact of the rise in the base figure in the same period last year, the growth rate of macro data such as industrial production, consumption and investment in May declined to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, but it is still normal.

Analysts said May's macro data showed that economic repair continued and the pace of recovery was basically in line with expectations. Among them, manufacturing investment and social retail have accelerated, and the average growth rate of manufacturing investment has become positive in two years, but the production differentiation began to appear under the impact of cost.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that GDP in the second quarter is expected to reach 8.0-8.5% year on year. The two-year compound growth rate of GDP will be about 5.8%, not far from the 6.0% economic growth in 2019, and basically reach the level of potential economic growth this year. There are still some structural problems in economic repair, and the structural differences improved slightly in May, but there is still some room for adjustment in the future. Judging from consumption growth and employment data, it is unlikely that monetary policy will be significantly tightened or loosened in the short term.

Industrial production recovered steadily, and cost shocks began to lead to differentiation between upstream and downstream.

The added value of industries at and above the national scale rose 8.8 per cent in May from a year earlier, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, the Bureau of Statistics said. Compared with the same month in 2019, the growth rate was 13.6%, the two-year average growth rate was 6.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the two-year average growth rate from January to May was 7.0%, which was the same as that of the previous four months.

Jiang Yuan, deputy director of the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in May, with the continuous consolidation of the achievements of overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, industrial production continued to recover steadily, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew rapidly, and the consumer goods industry accelerated recovery. exports continued to grow rapidly.

Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst at Soochow Securities, said that the month-on-month growth rate of industrial growth was not low in May, but cost shocks began to lead to a differentiation between the upstream and downstream, more obviously in the downstream automobile and textile industry, which showed negative year-on-year growth.

Sun Yongle, a macro analyst at Hongta Securities, believes that the core contradiction of subsequent economic growth is still on commodities, and if upstream prices remain high, the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches will naturally continue to be under pressure. it will also have a negative impact on residents' employment and income, and the willingness of enterprises to invest and expand production will also be relatively weak. Follow-up attention can be paid to the impact of policies on commodities.

Investment in fixed assets has resumed growth, while investment in the manufacturing industry has grown rapidly.

According to the Bureau of Statistics, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) recovered steadily from January to May, an increase of 15.4 percent over the same period last year. Based on the base period from January to May in 2019, the two-year average growth rate was 4.2 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of January-April, and 0.17 percent month-on-month growth in May.

Luo Yifei, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that investment in the three major areas has improved, the two-year average growth rate of investment in the manufacturing industry has become positive, investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, private investment has recovered steadily, investment in the field of people's livelihood has maintained relatively rapid growth, the two-year average growth rate of investment in the social sector has accelerated, the momentum of investment growth has increased, and the leading indicators continue to improve.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the two-year average growth rate of investment in the manufacturing industry has become positive, and the average growth rate of retail sales of all commodity categories has been growing in two years, which is an area that has improved significantly this month. The improvement in investment in the manufacturing sector is related to strong external demand.

Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of the accelerated recovery of the global economy and the repeated return of production to China as a result of the epidemic in some emerging economies, China's exports have maintained relatively rapid growth, leading to the improvement of the manufacturing industry, and the willingness of enterprises to spend capital has rebounded, supporting investment in the manufacturing industry.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of open source securities, pointed out that investment in the manufacturing industry has gradually rebounded, the structure is obviously divided, and the "crowding-out effect" of rising raw material prices on some middle and lower reaches of industries has appeared. The growth rate of investment in transportation equipment, automobile, textile, electrical machinery and other industries dropped in May, which may be related to the rapid rise in the cost of raw materials, weak demand, profit squeeze, declining willingness to invest, and so on.

The recovery of the consumer market in May is good, but the consumer psychology of the public is still more cautious.

The data also show that the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.4% in May compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by changes in the base figure over the same period, and the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points lower than that in April. Compared with the same period in 2019, the total volume increased by 9.3%, 0.5 percentage points faster than in April; in May, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.81% month-on-month, 0.56 percentage points faster than the previous month.

From January to May, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods increased by 25.7% compared with the same period last year; the two-year average growth rate was 4.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over January-April.

Shen Junli, a statistician from the Trade and Foreign economy Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in May, driven by factors such as holiday consumption and monthly consumption promotion activities, market sales maintained a good recovery, showing the characteristics of steady growth in retail sales, obvious recovery in service consumption, relatively rapid growth in online consumption, and continued improvement in offline consumption.

Wang Qing believes that with the basic lifting of restrictions on domestic consumption scenarios by the epidemic, commodity consumption has entered a stable repair process; however, compared with industrial production and investment, the current repair of commodity consumption is still obviously slow, indicating that the consumer psychology of the public is more cautious.