Market summary
On Friday, the gold market bottomed out and rebounded, with spot gold prices testing the $1760 / oz mark at one point, setting a seven-month low. But gold rebounded in the evening, back above $1780 an ounce.
But the gold market will still fall by more than 2% this week, its worst week so far this year.
Hot event
Barkin, chairman of the Richmond Fed, said the economy was expected to return to health "in the short term" given the combination of loose monetary policy, excessive savings and fiscal spending. It is expected that there will be some price pressures this year. Economic improvement depends on novel coronavirus vaccine and mutant novel coronavirus.
Vlieghe, the monetary policy commissioner of the Bank of England, said quantitative easing had little effect on the economy. Negative interest rates may need to be implemented later this year or next. There is a tendency to maintain the current monetary stimulus until 2023 or 2024. Starting in August this year, the MPC's inclusion of negative interest rates in its toolbox will be an important and welcome development.
Technical analysis
The picture shows the one-hour trend chart of gold, the price is short-term low and trading below the front low of 1784.99, if the price continues to decline, short-term or test Fibonacci 123.6% extension booth 1769.99 support, fall below the aftermarket need to pay attention to 2gamma 1 gan line, the future may be further down to Fibonacci 138.2% extension booth 1760.71.
If the price goes up, short-term or test 1784.99 resistance, you need to pay attention to 3max 1 Gan's line in the back market, and Fibonacci may be further tested for 78.6% back position 1798.59 resistance in the future.
Outlook for the future
(Commerzbank), a German commercial bank, said in a report that the performance of the gold market is like the ebb after the first wave of the tsunami, and then it will come back more violently, that is, the price of gold will rise sharply.
Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said the rise in global bond yields had dealt a fatal blow to gold. Moya noted that if global bond yields continue to rise, the dollar's rally will not end, which is extremely bad for gold, which could fall to $1750 an ounce.
Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank), said that as long as bond yields are higher, it will be difficult for the gold market to get support. Hansen believes that if the gold price does not maintain the $1765-ounce level, then it will fall further.
