SMM1 March 29: the outer metal market rose and fell yesterday, and (LME) copper futures on the London Metal Exchange closed higher on Thursday as the dollar rose to fall, making commodity prices cheaper for buyers of other currencies. The Chilean copper commission (Cochilco) said on Thursday that it had raised its copper price forecast for this year to $3.30 a pound, compared with its previous estimate of $2.90 a pound, because of novel coronavirus's vaccination progress and the good outlook for the Chinese economy. The agency said its latest forecast was driven by "optimistic expectations of early global vaccination, forecasts of China's rapid economic growth and views on the fragility of global copper supplies". There were mixed ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:40 in the morning, Lunchen copper was down nearly 0.1%, Lunzn zinc was up nearly 0.3%, Lun aluminum was up nearly 0.2%, Lunni and lun lead were faintly green, and Lunxi was up nearly 0.4%. Domestically, international copper is up nearly 0.4%, Shanghai copper is up nearly 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 0.5%, Shanghai zinc is up nearly 0.6%, Shanghai nickel is up nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin is up nearly 1.6%.
In terms of copper, from a macro point of view, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week ending January 23 and the number of renewed jobless claims in the week ending January 16 were lower than expected. Risk sentiment improved, the three major US stock indexes closed higher, the dollar index range fell back to around 90.4 at one point, and copper for night delivery was boosted to recover some of its daytime losses. It is expected to be 7860-7940 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 57900-58400 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper rebounded slightly overnight. Shanghai copper is running at 57900-58400 yuan / ton today.
Aluminum, approaching the Spring Festival, enterprises have entered the maintenance period and the Spring Festival holiday, orders and shipments decreased, yesterday statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory accumulated slightly, the weak domestic fundamentals trend is difficult to change in the short term, but the holder is willing to bid strongly, it is expected that the short-term Shanghai aluminum center of gravity will continue to show range shocks, internal and external arbitrage and inter-market arbitrage strategies continue, follow-up attention to the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment and contract structure.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the decline in claims for unemployment benefits in the United States has boosted macro attention to the changes in the inventory of electrolytic aluminum.
In terms of lead, overnight LME lead stocks went to the warehouse again, reducing 3025 tons to 10415 tons, continuing the intensive pace of destocking this month. Lun lead trend first suppressed and then rose, wide shock, long-empty game is fierce, and finally fell slightly to close the long cross. Lead prices are expected to be flat today compared with yesterday. Overnight, the basic metals of the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose at the beginning of the day, boosting the Shanghai lead shock upward, the center of gravity moved upward, continuing this week's bullish market. However, recently, trading in the lead market has gradually weakened, with both supply and demand, and the 5-day moving average has shifted from support to pressure, and the upward power of Shanghai lead is slightly insufficient. In addition, Peru began to block the whole territory yesterday, which is the second source of imports of lead concentrate from China, and pays close attention to the follow-up supply of lead ore.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight, lead fell slightly in Shanghai and closed higher in Shanghai, following the follow-up mine supply.
Zinc, overnight zinc overcast turn red, the top jump away from the moving average to suppress, KDJ opening narrowed upward. Overnight LME inventory decreased by 700t to 293800 t, or 0.42%. Overnight, the dollar weakened, the three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the number of first-time jobless claims fell to 847000 last week, better than market expectations and improved risk sentiment, but last year's GDP hit its lowest level since 1946 to limit its gains. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term. Shanghai zinc recorded Xiaoyang column overnight, and the daily K center of gravity rose slightly, which was supported by the lower rail of Brin Road. Overnight overseas macro mood warmed up, the outer disk uplink led, the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc increased. There is no significant change in domestic fundamentals for the time being, and we will pay attention to the impact of Peru's closure on overseas mine shipments in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc dressing in Shanghai overnight: short-term concern about the impact of Peruvian closure on the mine end
In terms of nickel, after Powell spoke cautiously, the macro mood led to a rebound in the dollar and a general fall in metal prices; from a fundamental point of view, the downstream consumption of stainless steel is better than the expected level in the same period in previous years, and the demand support for nickel is relatively ideal; the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron, but delivery and imports will supplement the market supply and the shortage of supply will gradually ease. With the increase in the price of stainless steel, the price of high nickel pig iron has also improved; in addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry has advanced, resulting in a good performance of nickel sulfate consumption and a shortage of raw materials. Overall, the decline in macro sentiment makes the metal generally under pressure, while nickel itself has better fundamentals and is expected to be relatively resistant, and the follow-up is still concerned about the impact of macro prices.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price pullback spot deal to improve high nickel pig iron price is still under pressure
In terms of black series, threads fell by nearly 0.8%, hot rolls by nearly 1%, coking coal by nearly 1.7%, coke by nearly 1%, iron ore by nearly 1.6%, stainless steel up by nearly 0.2%, and iron ore. Recently, the company issued a notice on matters such as new deliverable brands and adjustment of related discounts for iron ore futures. Benxi Iron and Steel fine powder, IOC6, Kumba and Ukraine fine powder will be added as iron ore futures deliverable brands. And adjust the existing iron ore futures deliverable brand discount, the relevant adjustment from the I2202 contract. At this point, the iron ore resources that can be delivered by big businessmen are expected to be further expanded. In addition, the main iron ore contracts fell weakly yesterday, and the port spot quotation fell 5-10 yuan / ton in early trading; as the market continued to decline, the decline in port spot transaction prices enlarged.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the proportion of self-storage in rebar mills increased and the price fell sharply after the year.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.4% in the previous period, while international crude oil futures fell on Thursday as the market focused more on delays in vaccination and new travel restrictions that could dampen demand rather than the impact of a weaker dollar and a sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. Analysts point out that we see the strong curve as a sign of a tightening of the balance between supply and demand, and that the upcoming production cuts in Saudi Arabia will outweigh growing epidemic-related demand concerns. Saudi Arabia is understood to have pledged to voluntarily cut production by an additional 1 million b / d in February and March as part of the OPEC agreement.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.2%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 3.7%. Comex gold futures fell on Thursday, falling for the sixth day in a row, recording the longest losing streak since March 2019. Spot silver prices surged about 7 per cent as the dollar weakened, making prices lower for buyers outside the US. The data show that the US economy shrank in 2020 at its fastest pace since the second world war, encouraging investment in assets such as silver and gold, which have traditionally been seen as safe havens for wealth.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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