SMM1 March 18: the non-ferrous metals market is generally red today. by the end of the day, international copper rose 0.15%, Shanghai copper rose 0.08%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.54%, Shanghai lead rose 0.27%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.61%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.5%, and Shanghai tin rose 1.76%. From a macro point of view, China's economic report card for 2020 was released today: GDP grew by 2.3%, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth; GDP totaled 101.5986 trillion yuan, breaking the 100 trillion yuan mark. Ning Jizhe, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference of the National Information Office, "the total economic output exceeds 100 trillion yuan, which means that the economic strength and comprehensive strength have reached a new level." it is of landmark significance to start a new journey of building a modern country in an all-round way. "
China's economy grew 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, higher than the 6.1 per cent forecast, ending the difficult situation of the novel coronavirus epidemic in 2020. Ren Xingzhou, former director and researcher of the Market economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that behind the eye-catching GDP data is the great resilience of China's economy and its comprehensive competitiveness. Compared with last year's extremely low base, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year will be relatively high, even exceeding 8% and 9%.
In terms of copper, international BC copper trading volume moved up slightly again, and the increase was significantly higher than that of Shanghai copper, and the market attention continued to pick up. The 2103 contract closed at 59280 yuan / ton. If calculated on the basis of 52730 yuan / ton of BC2103 copper, its after-tax price is 59584.9 yuan / ton. The price difference between BC2103 copper and Shanghai copper 2103 is stable, about 300 yuan / ton. Continue to pay attention to the activity and attention of the BC copper market, and whether it can match the strength of Shanghai Copper to follow the trend of Shanghai Copper Synchronize. Today, the copper in Shanghai is closed, the opening of the KDJ line is narrowed, and the green column of the MACD line is shortened. The solid column continues to be supported by the Bollinger middle rail and the 20-day moving average. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to the development of the US stimulus bill and the drive of the outer disk, and observe whether Shanghai Copper can seek 5-day and 10-line support to stabilize the 59000 yuan / ton integer barrier.
[brief Review of SMM International Copper BC] BC Copper opened low and walked high and Shouyang gradually stood on the recent moving average.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] Protection of domestic Annual Economic data Biden's stimulus package greatly boosted the confidence of the copper market.
In terms of zinc, the daily contract for 2103 of Shanghai zinc is opened at 20250 yuan / ton. Zinc fluctuated weakly around the daily average in the early period, reaching a low of 20135 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, with the macro positive drive, zinc bears left the market one after another, and zinc came out of the upward trend. It finally closed down 20415 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, or 0.61%, and its position increased by 9503 hands to 89243 hands. The zinc in the future will be long and close to the shadow line and run along the lower edge of the Boll line. Today, China's 2020 GDP data is better than expected. Under the macro sentiment, the non-ferrous sector has stopped falling and rebounded. However, due to the pessimistic expectation of zinc consumption, zinc prices lack the driving force to rise. Continue to pay attention to the lower integer support at night, zinc prices are expected to be weak and volatile.
"[brief Review of Zinc in SMM] Zinc concussion weak Operation in the period of Zinc concussion"
In terms of nickel, the market has gradually verified that the fundamentals of stainless steel have been significantly improved, and the supply contraction is limited, while the downstream consumption is better than expected in the same period of previous years, the demand support for nickel is relatively ideal, and the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable. the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron, and there are signs of slight improvement in the price of high nickel pig iron with the increase in the price of stainless steel. In addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is ahead of schedule, resulting in a good performance of nickel sulfate consumption and a shortage of raw materials. Overseas easing and expected recovery in consumption still make the market believe that commodities are in a strong cycle, and the latest hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve have disturbed market sentiment recently, but the new round of stimulus policy announced by the United States has revived the market and provided momentum to continue to rise. for nickel prices, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of macro news. SMM expects 129000-136500 yuan / ton of nickel in Shanghai and $17600-18450 / ton of Lunni this week.
[SMM brief Review] can Shanghai Nickel re-explore the upper pressure position successfully?
In terms of black, thread rose 0.55%, hot coil rose 0.16%, coking coal fell 0.52%, coke fell 1.45%, iron ore rose 1.65%, hot roll price Synchronize fell last week. Recently, the northern market has been affected by cold weather and epidemic situation, resulting in a significant decline in terminal demand. At the same time, the southern market is also under the influence of the epidemic, the construction is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal holiday is gradually put on the agenda. In this case, the hot spot market performance is weak, the actual transaction is very few, the overall market trading atmosphere is desolate, the merchant mentality is also declining all the way. Dragged down by the spot, even if the volume has a strong support from the raw material end, the overall performance is still weak. In the later stage, on the supply side, production is expected to contract, and short-term market supply is limited. Demand side, epidemic situation + Spring Festival, short-term demand weakening is more significant. The fundamentals are still weak. At the same time, the accumulated stock in the market is earlier than in previous years, and businesses are generally worried about the situation during the Chung Festival period, prompting them to have a strong willingness to clear the stock. In view of this, spot prices are expected to remain volatile this week.
The previous period of crude oil fell 2.4 per cent, and international oil prices fell further on Monday from an 11-month high hit last week, ending the upward momentum that began in late October due to Saudi production cuts and strong Chinese demand; the market outlook is questionable as the number of novel coronavirus infections rises. Us drillers increased the use of oil and gas rigs for the eighth week in a row, putting further pressure on the oil market as higher oil prices made production more profitable. However, the number of active rigs is still less than half that of the same period last year.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.27%, Shanghai silver fell 1.42%, and international spot gold prices rose on Monday. The market expects the United States to implement a large-scale epidemic relief plan, and gold is becoming more attractive as a hedge against inflation. Analysts point out that at this level, the gold market continues to be relatively supported because the current dollar rally has more to do with safe-haven demand than a visible strengthening.
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