[risk Tip] how to control the risk during the period of sharp rise and fall of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel and spot trading?

Published: Jan 13, 2021 17:39 (GMT+8)

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Recently, the futures prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel fluctuated violently. As of the day's close today, the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 131180 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.15% on the day, and the main contract of stainless steel was 13910 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.24% on the day. SMM believes that the market has gradually verified that the fundamentals of stainless steel have been significantly improved, and the supply contraction is limited, while the downstream consumption is better than expected in the same period in previous years, so the demand support for nickel is relatively ideal; the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron. With the increase in the price of stainless steel, the price of high nickel pig iron also shows signs of slight improvement. In addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is ahead of schedule, resulting in a good performance of nickel sulfate consumption and a shortage of raw materials.

On the macro front, overseas easing and expected recovery in consumption still make the market believe that commodities are in a strong cycle, but the latest hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve have disturbed market sentiment, and for nickel prices, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of macro news. In addition, as the price of nickel continues to rise, there is pressure on the high itself, and the rate of price increase will gradually slow down. While there is support below, there is not much room at the top. SMM estimates that this month Shanghai nickel is 124000-136000 yuan / ton and Lunni is 16700-18400 US dollars / ton.

The prices of nickel and stainless steel rise and fall sharply, so how is the performance of the spot market? According to SMM today's data show that spot, today's morning nickel consolidation in the vicinity of 130000 shock consolidation, around 11:00 rose more than 1000 yuan or so. Market enquiries are still active. However, the spot supply is still tight, the quotation is firm, and the market is gradually reaching a deal with long-term delivery. In terms of quotation, as the price of 02 contract is almost the same as that of 03 contract, traders gradually turn to 03 contract quotation.

In terms of stainless steel, the spot market quotation of stainless steel is generally stable, with the price of cold rolling coil at 14600-15300 yuan / ton, hot rolling at 14400-14500 yuan / ton, and cutting edge at 15500-15700 yuan / ton. At present, the spot market price is stable as a whole, but there are individual merchants who slightly increase the price. Due to the upward price of nickel yesterday, and the current market volume is less, the pressure of price increase is not great, so there is a slight increase in sentiment, but the overall trading performance of the market is mediocre.

Stainless steel mills mainly purchase long orders, and at present, the price fluctuation of high nickel pig iron is small, the purchase price of scrap is flexible, the proportion of pure nickel in stainless steel production is reduced, and the price fluctuation of Shanghai nickel has a limited impact on stainless steel plants. The price of stainless steel futures contract changes greatly in the near future, but the spot market of stainless steel is tight at present, and the spot price is strong. It is suggested that the rigid demand of the market should be mainly purchased, and careful attention should be paid to the pressure on the price of stainless steel after the supply of goods in the follow-up market is supplemented.

Nickel nickel price stainless steel mining

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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