SMM1 March 11: today, the non-ferrous metals market plummeted across the board. By the end of the day, international copper fell 2.43%, Shanghai copper fell 2.45%, Shanghai aluminum fell 2.66%, Shanghai lead fell 3.79%, Shanghai zinc fell 2.82%, Shanghai nickel fell 4.01%, and Shanghai tin fell 2.39%. In terms of lead, the social inventory of lead ingots is accumulating at present. On the one hand, some primary lead smelters, such as Henan persimmon champagne, are shut down for maintenance, while other smelters are still in normal production. In terms of recycled lead, the impact of environmental protection and production reduction in Guizhou and other areas is still there, at the same time, low temperature and epidemic factors have led to the procurement and even production of waste batteries in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Guizhou and other places. Follow-up, we need to pay attention to whether the relevant situation has improved after the cold wave. On the other hand, the consumption of lead-acid battery is weaker, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm decreases, which is more inclined to the recycled lead with better price. The fundamentals of lead are weak and it is difficult to provide a driving force for lead prices. In the near future, attention should be paid to the cold weather, logistics constraints caused by outbreaks and the impact of power cuts on supply and demand. Lead prices are expected to weaken in the short term.
[SMM analysis] lead prices fell by nearly 4%. Focus on the impact of these factors on supply and demand
In terms of zinc, from a fundamental point of view, the supply of zinc concentrate is still tight, but at present, the stock of raw materials in domestic smelters is relatively stable, with an increase of 3 to 25 days compared with the previous month, and the overall production is normal. The actual planned overhaul and production reduction of the superimposed smelter is limited, and the mine tension has not been transmitted to the smelter. Overall, the domestic market has gradually turned to a situation in which supply exceeds demand, basically facing the gradual weakening of the support of zinc prices, and at the same time, the expected smelter production reduction and overhaul due to insufficient mine supply is not as expected. Under the background of high production of smelters, the pressure of accumulating storage has increased this year, and zinc prices are mainly expected to be consolidated in the short term, waiting for further guidance from the macro aspects.
[SMM Express] Zinc prices have fallen sharply, consumption has weakened, and tight support for mineral supply has been reduced.
Tin, from a fundamental point of view, at present, the city closure test has been carried out in the WA Bangkang area of Myanmar from January 6, and the city closure is tentatively scheduled for one week. Whether to continue to close the city after a week depends on the development of the epidemic and the test results will be decided again. During the closure of the city, the transportation and export of local tin mines will be suspended. The market had expected that more miners would sell more tin mines in January for the sake of withdrawing funds before the Spring Festival, but now the epidemic has intensified the city closure, so tin miners' shipments may be affected. at present, the shortage of domestic tin ore supply has not improved, and it is difficult to return to low processing fees. Last Friday night trading in Shanghai tin all the way down after the opening, Shanghai tin long positions triggered a price decline, pay attention to the WA Bangkang area city closure and the guidance provided by the surrounding market.
[SMM brief Review] the US dollar is back above 90%. The closing of more than 2% positions in Shanghai and tin triggered a decline in short-term test support.
In terms of black system, thread fell 2.79%, hot coil fell 4.21%, stainless steel fell 5.01%, coking coal rose 0.99%, coke fell 3.84%, iron ore fell 1.69%, thread: on the way to weakening demand, the supply side was disturbed by regional "power cuts" and continued to be weak and stable. As a result, the overall spot fundamentals are still weak, but new price support points continue to flow, and the market's tolerance for high prices is forced to increase. In the later stage, although the downward pattern of price shocks has not changed, the sudden power cuts in Jiangsu may bring short-paced rebound opportunities to prices.
In terms of stainless steel, the main stainless steel contract also continued to weaken last Friday, near the lunchtime main contract SS2103 contract fell to the limit, in addition, a number of stainless steel contracts to the limit state. SMM believes that stainless steel futures contracts fluctuate sharply, which is mainly due to the game operation on the capital side of the long and short sides, and the early bulls make a profit to leave the market. After the current price difference of last Thursday was repaired, the price limit of stainless steel today caused the price spread of stainless steel to open again. At the current limit price, the current spot discount of futures has once again reached 1000 yuan / ton.
"[SMM flash] drop limit! The current price difference of stainless steel futures during the big shock period expands by more than 1000 yuan / ton.
Crude oil fell 2.1 per cent in the previous period and international oil prices fell on Monday as strict epidemic blockades in Europe and new travel restrictions in China after a jump in the number of novel coronavirus cases reignited concerns about global fuel demand. Analysts pointed out that the resurgence of the epidemic in Asia, coupled with the Fed policy uncertainty triggered some profit-taking in early trading, Crown Prince Mohamed (Mohammed bin Salman) of Saudi Arabia revealed that Saudi Arabia's future is not just oil. Iraq raised the price for Asian crude oil sales in February, and Brent crude oil has performed poorly since then.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 3.16% and Shanghai silver fell 9.15%. International spot gold prices fell on Monday, hitting a nearly six-week low earlier in the day, as gold prices came under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields. Analysts pointed out that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields began to have a quite negative impact on gold, and the market continued to stop holding large positions because they were not prepared for these fluctuations in the dollar.
Close during the day
"check out more metal prices.
