SMM12 March 31: yesterday, there were ups and downs in the outer metal. (LME) copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell on Wednesday. As the end of the year approached, trading decreased, and the surge in infections caused by mutated viruses put pressure on the market. Market participants believe that we have entered some kind of vacuum and people are now leaving for the holidays. This is another strange day, the market is volatile, speculators drive the market up and down. I think the prospect of rising next year is very good, but we are not out of the predicament of this epidemic yet. In early trading today, most of the LME metal market was green, with Lun Copper down nearly 0.3%, Lunzn Zinc down nearly 0.6%, Lun Aluminum down nearly 0.3%, Lunni down nearly 0.1%, Lunxi flat, and Lunxi lead up nearly 0.2%. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 0.6%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, shanghai lead rose nearly 1.4%, shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.3%, shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.3%, shanghai tin fell nearly 0.8%.
In terms of copper, macroscopically, on the one hand, the epidemic situation of novel coronavirus is becoming more and more serious, and the mutation of the virus has led to a There has been a new death of COVID-19 in Germany, the largest one-day increase since the epidemic. The British epidemic has spiralled out of control and the government will extend the blockade. On the other hand, U.S. Senate Majority Leader McConnell ruled out the possibility of passing $2000 in personal bail-out subsidy legislation in the near future, and investor optimism continues to cool, but the market expects more stimulus measures after Biden takes office, and the dollar continues to weaken, providing support for copper futures.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the continued weakness of the US dollar gives support to copper futures.
In terms of lead, overnight, lead stopped falling, and the dollar index continued to fall, raising Zhenlun lead upward, trying to explore the first line of 2000 US dollars / tonne. We still need to pay attention to the impact of the release of the emergency blockade of overseas epidemics on the market. Overnight Shanghai lead was boosted by Lun lead, closed slightly higher, above the 20-day moving average, bearing a pressure of 14900 yuan / ton first line.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead in Shanghai rose slightly at the end of the year and spot trading was light at the end of the year.
In terms of zinc, the overnight dollar index refreshed its low in April 2018, while the outer disk metal generally rose. Widespread vaccination will boost the economic recovery and the market is optimistic about the introduction of further stimulus measures to support the upside of Ren Zinc. Overnight, Shanghai Zinc stop Yin turned red, the upper 40-day moving average was suppressed, and the lower rail of Bollinger Road provided support. Short-term zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly, January TC downgrade again shows that the mine end tight pattern has not changed, while compressing smelter profits, social inventory is still low, the supply side of zinc price support is strong. However, the weak seasonal consumption of galvanizing in the north has a certain negative effect on zinc prices, and it is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the supply side of Zinc overturning Red in Shanghai still has support for zinc price.
In terms of nickel, although the fundamentals are OK, we should also pay attention to the increasing negative emotional pressure after the early overdraft. After all, the capital factor plays an important role in the early nickel price rise. Therefore, on the whole, there is a reason for nickel prices to be long and short, or to maintain a high volatility trend, and operators can further wait and see the performance of the post-holiday market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] downstream bargain purchasing superimposed year-end closure spurred nickel spot Shengshui firm stainless steel plant to raise stock prices in line with the market.
Tin, yesterday's spot market supply is too small, the mainstream rising water in the morning: Yunxi to 2102 contract level, ordinary Yunzi discount 500,700 yuan / ton, small brand discount about 1200 yuan / ton. The morning transaction is light, the afternoon price falls further, and the transaction atmosphere is better than in the morning. The rising water line: 200,400 yuan / ton for the 2102 contract Yunxi, about 300 yuan / ton for the ordinary Yunzi discount, and 1000 yuan / ton for the small brand discount. Today's forecast: the tin center of gravity in Shanghai is lower than yesterday, and the mainstream spot range is expected to be 150500-152500 yuan / ton today.
[SMM Tin Price Forecast] the center of gravity of Shanghai and tin has declined. Today's spot is expected to be in this range.
In terms of black series, the thread rose nearly 0.2%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.8%, coking coal fell nearly 0.8%, coke fell nearly 0.1%, iron ore rose nearly 0.5%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.3%, and in terms of threads, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to "ensure a decline in crude steel production compared with the same period last year." as a result, the snail stabilized yesterday, changing the weak pattern of the previous two days. However, the performance of the spot is still weak under the interference of the weather, except that East China is still out of stock and the price is relatively strong, the market in other regions has fallen by about 0-50 yuan / ton, but under the boost of the snail, the trading atmosphere in some markets has improved slightly.
[SMM Morning meeting View] the black system as a whole has entered a stage of weak shock.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.6%, and international crude oil futures closed higher on Wednesday, supported by reduced crude oil stocks in the United States and the approval of the second novel coronavirus vaccine in the United Kingdom, but the increase in supply brought pressure from the same period last year. Analysts point out that after a plunge of 6.1 million barrels, inventories are still unable to be pushed down, which is sad but realistic, which makes a large-scale rally lose momentum.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 1.6%, and international gold futures closed higher on Wednesday as the prospect of increased financial aid from the United States pushed the dollar to its lowest level in more than two years, but the global launch of novel coronavirus vaccine and increased risk appetite limited the rise in gold prices. Analysts point out that the dollar index hit new lows, which is good for gold and silver markets. However, the high risk appetite in the market, as evidenced by the fact that the stock index is at or near all-time highs, is moderating enthusiasm for gold, and the two factors are now wrestling.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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