SMM Evening Comments (Dec 28): Shanghai nonferrous metals closed mostly higher, aluminium dropped 2.26%

SHANGHAI, Dec 28 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals rose for the most part on Monday December 28 as traders react to Brexit developments and as President Donald Trump signed a $900 billion Covid-19 relief bill into law.

Trump averted a government shutdown late Sunday, and extended unemployment benefits to millions of Americans. The signing came days after Trump suggested he would veto the legislation, demanding $2,000 direct payments to Americans, instead of $600.

Lead, the best performer, rose 1.5%, copper advanced 0.89%, nickel gained 1.04% and tin went up 0.32%, while zinc edged down 0.51% and aluminium dropped 2.26%.

The ferrous complex fell across the board. Hot-rolled coil went down 2.54%, iron ore shed 0.73%, and rebar fell 0.7%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2102 copper contract finished the day 0.89% higher at 58,770 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 4,280 lots to 121,597 lots. Macro sentiment recovered due to Trump's final signing of the presidential decree to pass the 900 billion COVID-19 bailout bill today. The US stimulus bill was finally settled, which once again boosted the confidence of the capital market slightly. Copper prices once again exceeded 59,000 yuan/mt. However, the COVID-19 continues to impact the global economic activities. Japan will ban most non-citizens from entering the country after discovering cases of mutant strains. China will suspend regular passenger flights between China and Britain, and the European Union will launch the coordinated action of vaccination in COVID-19. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.5% year on year in November, which was significantly slower than that in October, because the low cardinal utility weakened. Global economic activities are recovering in an orderly way. US Real Retail Sales for November and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for December will be monitored tonight. Pressure from 59,000 yuan/mt is significant.  

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2102 aluminium contract finished the day 2.26% lower at 15,565 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 5,813 lots to 117,590 lots.

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2102 zinc contract climbed to a session high of 21,925 yuan/mt and closed down 0.51% at 21,505 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 2,645 lots to 95,100 lots. Although the market still has some concerns about the overseas pandemic, long positions have made profits. However, on the fundamentals, the tension at the ore end has not eased. It is expected that the mining TCs will maintain a downward trend in January and will still provide strong support for zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will stop falling and rise tonight. The support from 20-day moving average will be monitored.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2103 nickel contract ended the day 1.04% higher at 127,800 yuan/mt today. Open interest rose 5,075 lots to 147,173 lots.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2102 lead contract rose to an intraday high of 14,970 yuan/mt before paring some gains to end the day 1.5% higher at 14,860 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 1,659 lots to 31,978 lots. The contract rose for four consecutive trading days. In the spot market, the supply of the primary lead in-plant stocks was tight, and social inventories decreased slightly, so the holders kept shipping at high prices, but the downstream was fear of high prices to wait and see, and restocked mainly for rigid demand. Whether long positions will enter the market to move above 15,000 yuan/mt will be monitored tonight.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2102 tin contract fell to a session low of 151,900 yuan/mt and finished the day 0.02% lower at 153,490 yuan/mt today. Open interest rose 3,427 lots to 21,479 lots. Pressure above is expected to around 156,000 yuan/mt. Support below is expected to around 150,000 yuan/mt.