SMM12 March 16: metals on the outer disk went up and down yesterday, and the price of copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose on Tuesday as data showed China's economic growth and major economies began to be vaccinated against novel coronavirus. Industrial production increased by 7.0% in real terms in November from a year earlier, the largest year-on-year increase since March 2019, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. it is mainly driven by the improvement in consumer spending and the gradual relaxation of anti-epidemic restrictions by major trading partners. The LME metal market was all red this morning. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, Lunxi Nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Lunxi rose nearly 0.5%, Lunxi lead rose nearly 0.2%, domestic copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.1%, and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.3%. Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.9%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, risk sentiment has improved. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell says Congress will not adjourn until the stimulus package is passed. Market sentiment has been boosted by the dawn of the stimulus bill negotiations, the return of optimistic expectations for the economic stimulus package, and the orderly promotion of novel coronavirus vaccine in the United States and the United Kingdom. The dollar index remained low at night, with copper rising slightly on the back of multiple positive gains.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the negotiations on the stimulus bill reveal the dawn of multiple benefits to support the copper price.
In terms of lead, overnight lead stopped falling, and overseas major economies began to popularize vaccines combined with the good experimental effects of a second vaccine to continue to boost the market, while European countries also opened varying degrees of restrictions to prevent the epidemic from spreading again. Overnight, Shanghai lead closed down, the low fell below the 14500 line. Due to the active consumption in the lower reaches of the spot market, it is expected that Shanghai lead will stop falling and maintain the trend of shock consolidation in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead on the outside, strong on the outside, weak on the inside, weak on the spot, bargain-hunting downstream.
In terms of zinc, the downside of the outer disk dragged down the price of zinc in Shanghai. Recent high consolidation of zinc in Shanghai, the performance is relatively strong, short-term fundamentals have not changed, the tension pattern at the mine end has not changed, there is still support for zinc prices, short-term attention to macro guidance.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the performance of high-level consolidation of zinc in Shanghai is relatively strong.
In terms of nickel, fundamentals, although there is no strong support and good news, it is also a marginal improvement pattern. Spot prices and market sentiment have stabilized after the production reduction plans of Synchronize in both stainless steel plants and nickel pig iron plants. On the other hand, under the condition that the consumption of electrolytic nickel market is stable and the import volume is limited by the ratio, the domestic inventory decreases to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 123000-133000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 16300-17800 US dollars / ton. After the surge, in the short term, pay attention to the increasing short pressure after the macro-positive overdraft.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] High Nickel prices fluctuate, High Nickel Pig Iron prices continue to rise, stainless steel spot prices also continue to rise.
Tin, yesterday's spot market mainstream discount: 2102 contract Yunxi discount about 300 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount about 1500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 2000-2300 yuan / ton. Tin prices rose to 150000 yuan / ton above, downstream fear of heights is high, almost no one enters the market to purchase, the transaction is mostly between traders, the transaction atmosphere is relatively low. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin center of gravity has fallen, pay attention to the downstream buying trends, whether there is buying support will affect the popularity of the market, today's spot is expected to 149500-151500 yuan / ton.
"[12.16 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
As for the black system, the thread rose nearly 1.6%, the hot coil rose nearly 1.5%, the coking coal rose nearly 0.3%, the coke rose nearly 0.9%, and the iron ore rose nearly 2%. According to SMM research, as of December 15, the operating rate of 34 independent electric arc furnaces with main building materials in the country was 78.64%, down 4.69% from last week. Among them, the operating rate in South China rose 1% to 95% compared with last week, while in East China, In particular, Zhejiang recently began to "cut power". A number of relevant steel mills have been affected and have reduced or stopped production to varying degrees, resulting in a 10 percentage point drop in the operating rate of electric furnace factories in eastern China this week to about 82%. The supply contraction caused by the decline in the operating rate of electric furnaces, especially in East China, will undoubtedly further aggravate the current tight specifications in the relevant areas, and the bottom support of spot prices will continue to be tamped. Although the seasonal weakening pace of rebar prices may continue to be delayed, short-term price support remains strong.
"[SMM investigation] the production of the steel plant and billet adjustment of electric arc furnace in Zhejiang area has been reduced and stopped!
Crude oil fell nearly 0.4% in the previous period, and international oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors focused on novel coronavirus's vaccination, ignored European tightening blockades and predicted a slower-than-expected recovery in fuel demand. Analysts pointed out that the crude oil market continues to pay attention to the future prospects after the pandemic, which will end as soon as next summer.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.1%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 2.1%. Comex gold futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday, rebounding from the two-week low hit last day, boosted by expectations that the United States will launch a new round of novel coronavirus aid program, while the rising number of infections has once again raised concerns about the economic losses caused by the epidemic.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
"Click to see more metal futures.
