SMM: global consulting firm Bain recently released a report saying that in the next two to eight years, with the decline in prices, the global electric vehicle penetration will rise rapidly and reach an inflection point in 2024. Electric cars are expected to account for 12% of global new car sales in 2025, and battery packs will fall to $100 per kilowatt-hour.
Although electric vehicles have become the most concerned direction of major car manufacturers and emerging car manufacturers, but at present, the sales base is still small and customers mainly buy cars through government subsidies, most of the enterprises' electric vehicle business does not make much money. On average, automakers now have a profit margin of-15%, compared with 5% for conventional fuel cars, Bain estimates.
With many developed countries banning the sale of fuel cars until 2035 or even 2030, automakers are planning to expand their product portfolio of pure electric vehicles in order to keep up with changes in regulations. Led by ambitious automakers such as Volkswagen, automakers have set a clear goal of launching more than 100 new models by 2023. However, if we want to further accelerate the popularity of electric cars and increase consumers' demand for electric cars, we need to convince consumers that the cost of owning electric cars is the same as or even lower than that of fuel vehicles. This depends on the total cost of ownership (TCO).
On average, in Germany's compact car segment, the total cost of ownership-acquisition price and operating cost-of electric cars is comparable to that of similar gasoline vehicles. Around the world, the exact time when the cost of owning an electric car is the same as that of a fuel car will depend on the type of vehicle, the size of the battery and the price of gasoline and electricity.
Hopefully, falling battery costs will help. At present, the purchase price of compact electric vehicles is still much higher than that of diesel locomotives-of which batteries account for about 30% of the manufacturing cost. However, Bain predicts that the cost of the battery pack will fall from $124 / kWh to $100 / kWh by 2025. The progress of science and technology and the optimization and upgrading of mass production will further accelerate the process.
In the next five years, as electric vehicles achieve parity between TCO (total cost of car ownership) and fuel vehicles in different car market segments and vehicle scenarios in different regions, customer demand will increase. But on average, it will be almost impossible for automakers to make a profit on their electric cars until 2025. If the electric travel industry is to usher in a real inflection point, the cost of owning electric cars will need to be lower than that of gasoline and diesel-powered cars without government subsidies.
The report predicts that the electric car industry will usher in an inflection point in 2024, when the niche market begins to expand rapidly until it reaches the tipping point of saturation. At that time, in all car segments and customer groups, the acceptance of customers will increase rapidly, and the total cost of owning electric models in most market segments will be the same as that of fuel vehicles, with relatively perfect charging infrastructure and hundreds of models for consumers to choose from.
The report points out that the first batch of companies to achieve the ultimate goal of affordable, non-subsidized electric cars will gain a valuable competitive advantage. With the passage of time, the profit of electric cars will be the same as that of fuel vehicles, or even higher. By 2025, electric cars will account for about 12% of global new car sales. By 2040, this number will reach more than 50%.
For some automakers, the transition from fuel to electric cars will naturally drive into another track: self-driving cars. The report predicts that two major applications will gradually rise over the next eight years: automatic road driving of private cars and robotic taxi fleets in urban areas.
Bain research shows that by 2030, self-driving ride-hailing service may become a profitable solution in the field of urban mobile travel. Innovative cities will use robotic taxi fleets as a complement to the existing public transport system, using self-driving cars to cover less popular routes to help ease traffic pressure in congested areas.
Advanced autopilot kits currently sell for more than $70,000, the report said. But over time, standardization, simplification and mass production will drive costs down significantly. By 2030, the cost of autopilot systems could fall by more than 85%, to about $10, 000.